Result
1:5
27/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 5
- Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.58 | 3.20 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 28 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (464/508) | 82% (189/231) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.58 | 3.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 4.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 28 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 22 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (464/508) | 82% (189/231) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (12/22) | 53% (28/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (102/122) | 78% (63/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (10/26) | 50% (5/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 22 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 64% (9/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.46 | 2.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.54 | 1.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 4)
- 8', 0 - 1, Koutsoupias I. ⚽,
- 16', 0 - 2, Ghedjemis F. ⚽,
- 20', Bracaglia G. 🟨,
- 21', Mancuso L. (Pen),
- 22', 0 - 3, Grosso F. ⚽, Koutsoupias I. (A),
- 43', 0 - 4, Calo G. ⚽, Ghedjemis F. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Bracaglia G. ↓, Oyono J. ↑,
- 48', Zilli M. 🟨,
- 54', 1 - 4, Fiori A. ⚽,
- 57', Zilli M. ↓, Raimondo A. ↑,
- 57', Grosso F. ↓, Cichella M. ↑,
- 57', Oyono A. 🟨,
- 62', Fiori A. 🟨,
- 62', Fedel G. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
- 62', Mancuso L. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
- 62', Trimboli S. ↓, Bonfanti N. ↑,
- 70', Radaelli N. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
- 72', Ghedjemis F. ↓, Kone B. L. ↑,
- 72', Koutsoupias I. ↓, Vergani E. ↑,
- 76', Fiori A. ↓, Marras T. ↑,
- 86', 1 - 5, Vergani E. ⚽, Kone B. L. (A),
- 87', Paoletti F. 🟨,
- 90+2', Monterisi I. 🟨,
- 90+2', Bonfanti N. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Mantova
32.3% | Draw
29.7% | Frosinone
38% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Frosinone's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+8.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-7.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mantova - Frosinone Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.48 ↑
(2.44) |
2.66 ↓
(3.23) |
2.11 ↓
(3.04) |
25.3%
(4.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mantova - Frosinone?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Frosinone will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 31.2% – 83%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Mantova (2.13) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 2nd Half - Frosinone (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- H/A, 1st Half - Frosinone (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Frosinone (3.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Frosinone (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Mantova is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Frosinone has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Mantova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Mantova: Ruocco F.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Frosinone: Barcella K.
(Inactive)
Biraschi D.
(Inactive)
Corrado N.
(Inactive)
Gori L.
(Inactive)
Hegelund V.
(Inactive)
Selvini A.
(Knee Injury)
Sherri A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Frosinone: Cichella M.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Mantova won against Frosinone?
Mantova has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Frosinone won against Mantova?
Frosinone has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mantova - Frosinone were as follows:
01.03.2025
Frosinone
-
Mantova
2:1
21.12.2024
Mantova
-
Frosinone
3:1
Latest results of Mantova
Latest results of Frosinone
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 53:24 | 29 | 56 |
| 2 | Monza | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 39:20 | 19 | 54 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48:24 | 24 | 53 |
| 4 | Palermo | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 45:19 | 26 | 51 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 37:27 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Modena | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 35:20 | 15 | 43 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Cesena | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34:37 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | Sudtirol | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 26:27 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Empoli | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 32:36 | -4 | 30 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31:36 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Padova | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 28:34 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | Avellino | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 30:42 | -12 | 29 |
| 15 | Reggiana | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 28:36 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Mantova | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 17 | Spezia | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:34 | -11 | 25 |
| 18 | Entella | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 24:37 | -13 | 25 |
| 19 | Bari | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 21:39 | -18 | 22 |
| 20 | Pescara | 26 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 30:51 | -21 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
