Mantova vs Frosinone – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Italian Serie B Mantova - Frosinone
Result
1:5
27/09/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B - Round 5
  • Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
italyItalyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.583.20
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
2822
Shots on target
99
Big Chances
66
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
91% (464/508)82% (189/231)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
3.583.20
xG on target (xGOT)
2.014.46
Total shots
2822
Shots on target
99
Shots off target
128
Blocked Shots
75
Shots inside the Box
1820
Shots outside the Box
102
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
66
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
3535
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
05
Free Kicks
2216
Passes
91% (464/508)82% (189/231)
Long passes
55% (12/22)53% (28/53)
Passes in final third
84% (102/122)78% (63/81)
Crosses
38% (10/26)50% (5/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.451.28
Throw-ins
157
Fouls
1622
Tackles
40% (2/5)64% (9/14)
Duels won
3447
Clearances
618
Interceptions
46
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
48
xGOT faced
4.462.01
Goals prevented
-0.541.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 4)
  • 8', 0 - 1, Koutsoupias I. ,
  • 16', 0 - 2, Ghedjemis F. ,
  • 20', Bracaglia G. 🟨,
  • 21', Mancuso L. (Pen),
  • 22', 0 - 3, Grosso F. , Koutsoupias I. (A),
  • 43', 0 - 4, Calo G. , Ghedjemis F. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Bracaglia G. , Oyono J. ,
  • 48', Zilli M. 🟨,
  • 54', 1 - 4, Fiori A. ,
  • 57', Zilli M. , Raimondo A. ,
  • 57', Grosso F. , Cichella M. ,
  • 57', Oyono A. 🟨,
  • 62', Fiori A. 🟨,
  • 62', Fedel G. , Paoletti F. ,
  • 62', Mancuso L. , Wieser D. ,
  • 62', Trimboli S. , Bonfanti N. ,
  • 70', Radaelli N. , Maggioni T. ,
  • 72', Ghedjemis F. , Kone B. L. ,
  • 72', Koutsoupias I. , Vergani E. ,
  • 76', Fiori A. , Marras T. ,
  • 86', 1 - 5, Vergani E. , Kone B. L. (A),
  • 87', Paoletti F. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Monterisi I. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Bonfanti N. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Mantova
32.3%
Draw
29.7%
Frosinone
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.1% 29.5% 31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7% 30.7% 30.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.
  • Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Frosinone's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+8.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Mantova - Frosinone Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.48
    (2.44)
    2.66
    (3.23)
    2.11
    (3.04)
    25.3%
    (4.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Mantova - Frosinone?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Frosinone will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 31.2%83%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Mantova is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Frosinone has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Mantova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Mantova: Ruocco F. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Frosinone: Barcella K. (Inactive) Biraschi D. (Inactive) Corrado N. (Inactive) Gori L. (Inactive) Hegelund V. (Inactive) Selvini A. (Knee Injury) Sherri A. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Frosinone: Cichella M. (Injury)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mantova - Frosinone were as follows:
    01.03.2025 Frosinone - Mantova 2:1
    21.12.2024 Mantova - Frosinone 3:1
    Latest results of Mantova
    20.09.2025 Mantova - Modena 1:3
    14.09.2025 Virtus Entella - Mantova 1:0
    30.08.2025 Mantova - Pescara 2:1
    23.08.2025 Monza - Mantova 1:0
    16.08.2025 Venezia - Mantova 4:0
    Latest results of Frosinone
    23.09.2025 Cagliari - Frosinone 4:1
    13.09.2025 Padova - Frosinone 0:1
    30.08.2025 Palermo - Frosinone 0:0
    24.08.2025 Frosinone - Avellino 2:0
    Italian Serie B Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Frosinone532010:3711
    2Palermo53207:2511
    3Cesena53209:5411
    4Modena43109:2710
    5Avellino53119:7210
    6Sudtirol52219:728
    7Venezia52217:528
    8Juve Stabia51406:427
    9Monza52124:407
    10Padova52124:5-17
    11Carrarese41216:515
    12Catanzaro50506:605
    13Reggiana51227:8-15
    14Entella51224:6-25
    15Pescara41128:714
    16Empoli41125:9-44
    17Mantova51044:11-73
    18Bari50233:9-62
    19Spezia50232:8-62
    20Sampdoria50143:9-61

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