Result
2:1
21/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 32
- Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.70 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (233/328) | 85% (472/556) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.70 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (233/328) | 85% (472/556) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (30/75) | 40% (23/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (36/78) | 73% (115/158) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 17% (4/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.34 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 11 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (7/12) | 60% (3/5) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.53 | -1.42 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 14', 1 - 0, Sersanti A. ⚽, Gliozzi E. (A),
- 31', Zampano F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Sersanti A. ↓, Wiafe S. ↑,
- 46', Marras T. ↓, Caprini M. ↑,
- 46', Buso N. ↓, Bragantini D. ↑,
- 59', 2 - 0, Tonoli D. ⚽,
- 62', Radaelli N. 🟨,
- 65', Radaelli N. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
- 70', Gliozzi E. ↓, Ambrosino G. ↑,
- 71', Zampano F. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
- 76', Dembele A. ↓, Mensah D. ↑,
- 76', Mancuso L. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
- 79', Kouda R. 🟨,
- 81', 2 - 1, Mensah D. ⚽, Kouda R. (A),
- 87', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
- 89', Castellini A. 🟨,
- 90', De Luca M. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
- 90+5', Mensah D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Modena
58.3% | Draw
24% | Mantova
17.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-1.9%)
Modena - Mantova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.62 ↑
(1.54) |
3.92 ↓
(4.03) |
5.15 ↓
(5.62) |
6.9%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Modena - Mantova?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Mantova will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 50.5% – 99.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Modena (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Mantova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Modena is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Modena: Defrel G.
(Inactive)
Pyyhtia N.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C.
(Injury)
Bonfanti N.
(Inactive)
Ruocco F.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Mantova: Ligue J.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Modena won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.3:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Modena won against Mantova?
Modena has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mantova won against Modena?
Mantova has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Modena - Mantova were as follows:
20.09.2025
Mantova
-
Modena
1:3
01.02.2025
Modena
-
Mantova
3:1
30.11.2024
Mantova
-
Modena
0:0
Latest results of Mantova
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
