Result
2:1
11/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.39 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (267/329) | 85% (409/481) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.93 | 1.30 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (267/329) | 85% (409/481) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (17/50) | 51% (27/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (53/83) | 68% (94/138) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 37% (7/19) | 12% (2/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.74 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (10/14) | 90% (9/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 34 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.93 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.20 | -0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 39', 1 - 0, Ivanovic L. ⚽, Robinson G. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Jamison B. ↓, Hegardt C. ↑,
- 51', 1 - 1, Benalcazar N. ⚽, Sylla O. (A),
- 51', Malango M. ↓, Gutierrez D. ↑,
- 54', 2 - 1, Sojberg A. ⚽, Gutierrez D. (A),
- 58', Fonguck W. 🟨,
- 63', Ivanovic L. 🟨,
- 65', Ivanovic L. ↓, Larsson A. ↑,
- 69', Kelly S. 🟥,
- 73', Dunbar C. ↓, War M. ↑,
- 76', Gomez S. 🟨,
- 78', Gordon N. ↓, Lara A. ↑,
- 78', Sojberg A. ↓, Gnaulati X. ↑,
- 82', Partida K. ↓, Santos K. ↑,
- 82', Doghman R. ↓, Ciotta N. ↑,
- 88', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
- 89', Sylla O. ↓, Kone C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Monterey Bay
31.4% | Draw
28.6% | Orange County SC
40.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orange County SC's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+7.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-8.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orange County SC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Monterey Bay - Orange County SC Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.95 ↑
(2.29) |
3.24 ↑
(3.2) |
2.31 ↓
(2.97) |
8.1%
(8.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 2.
- Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Orange County SC has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Monterey Bay won against Orange County SC?
Monterey Bay has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orange County SC won against Monterey Bay?
Orange County SC has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Orange County SC were as follows:
31.05.2025
Monterey Bay
-
Orange County SC
3:2
22.03.2025
Orange County SC
-
Monterey Bay
0:3
21.09.2024
Monterey Bay
-
Orange County SC
0:0
27.04.2024
Orange County SC
-
Monterey Bay
2:0
14.10.2023
Monterey Bay
-
Orange County SC
0:1
Latest results of Monterey Bay
Latest results of Orange County SC
USL Championship Table
2025Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City ✔ | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 48:18 | 30 | 57 |
| 2 | Charleston ✔ | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 50:27 | 23 | 51 |
| 3 | Loudoun | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 39:40 | -1 | 37 |
| 4 | North Carolina | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 35:32 | 3 | 36 |
| 5 | Hartford Athletic | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 37:27 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Detroit | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 29:30 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 23:23 | 0 | 31 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 17:24 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 36:43 | -7 | 26 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 27:37 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 29:38 | -9 | 22 |
| 12 | Miami FC | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22:38 | -16 | 21 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 35:19 | 16 | 38 |
| 3 | New Mexico | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 31:31 | 0 | 33 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 31:30 | 1 | 33 |
| 5 | El Paso | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 37:33 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Lexington | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26:30 | -4 | 32 |
| 7 | Colorado Springs | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 32:33 | -1 | 31 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 40:42 | -2 | 31 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 34:34 | 0 | 29 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 28:37 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 18:39 | -21 | 25 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24:36 | -12 | 24 |
Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Charleston is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
