Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship Monterey Bay - Orange County SC
Result
2:1
11/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Yellow Cards
31
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.931.30
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
41
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
107
Shots outside the Box
20
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
1927
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1415
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Long passes
34% (17/50)51% (27/53)
Passes in final third
64% (53/83)68% (94/138)
Crosses
37% (7/19)12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.74
Throw-ins
916
Fouls
1514
Tackles
71% (10/14)90% (9/10)
Duels won
4434
Clearances
2320
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
1.301.93
Goals prevented
0.20-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 39', 1 - 0, Ivanovic L. , Robinson G. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Jamison B. , Hegardt C. ,
  • 51', 1 - 1, Benalcazar N. , Sylla O. (A),
  • 51', Malango M. , Gutierrez D. ,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Sojberg A. , Gutierrez D. (A),
  • 58', Fonguck W. 🟨,
  • 63', Ivanovic L. 🟨,
  • 65', Ivanovic L. , Larsson A. ,
  • 69', Kelly S. 🟥,
  • 73', Dunbar C. , War M. ,
  • 76', Gomez S. 🟨,
  • 78', Gordon N. , Lara A. ,
  • 78', Sojberg A. , Gnaulati X. ,
  • 82', Partida K. , Santos K. ,
  • 82', Doghman R. , Ciotta N. ,
  • 88', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
  • 89', Sylla O. , Kone C. ,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Monterey Bay
31.4%
Draw
28.6%
Orange County SC
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.2% 28.7% 31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1% 27.9% 31.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.
  • Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orange County SC's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orange County SC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Monterey Bay - Orange County SC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.95
    (2.29)
    3.24
    (3.2)
    2.31
    (2.97)
    8.1%
    (8.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 2.
    • Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Orange County SC has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Orange County SC were as follows:
    31.05.2025 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 3:2
    22.03.2025 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 0:3
    21.09.2024 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:0
    27.04.2024 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 2:0
    14.10.2023 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:1
    Latest results of Monterey Bay
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston18132338:162241
    2Louisville City17115130:131738
    3Loudoun1883728:27127
    4North Carolina1682625:20526
    5Pittsburgh1765615:15023
    6Detroit1756620:22-221
    7Indy Eleven1655626:28-220
    8Miami FC1754817:25-819
    9Birmingham1846819:25-618
    10Rhode Island1745814:18-417
    11Hartford Athletic1644819:21-216
    12Tampa Bay16421017:25-814


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa1795327:18932
    2San Antonio1683523:21227
    3New Mexico1681722:21125
    4Sacramento Republic1666422:121024
    5Orange County SC1672726:23323
    6El Paso1665524:25-123
    7Phoenix Rising1765627:30-323
    8Monterey Bay1864819:23-422
    9Colorado Springs1756622:23-121
    10Oakland Roots1762919:25-620
    11Lexington1847718:26-819
    12Las Vegas Lights1753913:28-1518

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )