Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship Monterey Bay - Orange County SC
Result
2:1
11/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
Ball Possession
41%59%
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Yellow Cards
31
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.300.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.931.30
Total shots
127
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
41
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
107
Shots outside the Box
20
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
1927
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1415
Passes
81% (267/329)85% (409/481)
Long passes
34% (17/50)51% (27/53)
Passes in final third
64% (53/83)68% (94/138)
Crosses
37% (7/19)12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.74
Throw-ins
916
Fouls
1514
Tackles
71% (10/14)90% (9/10)
Duels won
4434
Clearances
2320
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
32
xGOT faced
1.301.93
Goals prevented
0.20-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 39', 1 - 0, Ivanovic L. , Robinson G. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Jamison B. , Hegardt C. ,
  • 51', 1 - 1, Benalcazar N. , Sylla O. (A),
  • 51', Malango M. , Gutierrez D. ,
  • 54', 2 - 1, Sojberg A. , Gutierrez D. (A),
  • 58', Fonguck W. 🟨,
  • 63', Ivanovic L. 🟨,
  • 65', Ivanovic L. , Larsson A. ,
  • 69', Kelly S. 🟥,
  • 73', Dunbar C. , War M. ,
  • 76', Gomez S. 🟨,
  • 78', Gordon N. , Lara A. ,
  • 78', Sojberg A. , Gnaulati X. ,
  • 82', Partida K. , Santos K. ,
  • 82', Doghman R. , Ciotta N. ,
  • 88', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
  • 89', Sylla O. , Kone C. ,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Monterey Bay
31.4%
Draw
28.6%
Orange County SC
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.2% 28.7% 31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1% 27.9% 31.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monterey Bay's form might have worsened.
  • Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orange County SC's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monterey Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orange County SC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Monterey Bay - Orange County SC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.95
    (2.29)
    3.24
    (3.2)
    2.31
    (2.97)
    8.1%
    (8.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 2.
    • Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Orange County SC has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Orange County SC were as follows:
    31.05.2025 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 3:2
    22.03.2025 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 0:3
    21.09.2024 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:0
    27.04.2024 Orange County SC - Monterey Bay 2:0
    14.10.2023 Monterey Bay - Orange County SC 0:1
    Latest results of Monterey Bay
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Louisville City21146142:172548
    2Charleston20142441:212044
    3North Carolina20103731:27433
    4Loudoun2094731:29231
    5Pittsburgh2177720:19128
    6Detroit2177724:24028
    7Hartford Athletic2075829:23626
    8Indy Eleven2065932:37-523
    9Rhode Island21561015:23-821
    10Miami FC21551121:34-1320
    11Birmingham2148924:33-920
    12Tampa Bay20531222:31-918


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa21126337:231442
    2Sacramento Republic2087529:171231
    3El Paso2087533:27631
    4San Antonio2085725:26-129
    5Phoenix Rising2177735:37-228
    6Lexington2177723:27-428
    7Orange County SC1983828:25327
    8New Mexico1983826:28-227
    9Colorado Springs2066825:29-424
    10Monterey Bay22661023:29-624
    11Oakland Roots20631124:32-821
    12Las Vegas Lights21551117:39-2220

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )