Result
1:0
30/01/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 20
- Referee: Nobre A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.77 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (282/360) | 81% (392/481) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 1.02 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (282/360) | 81% (392/481) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (19/46) | 29% (16/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (56/92) | 69% (64/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.60 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 42', Batista G. 🟨,
- 43', Maga 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Camara O. ↓, Samu ↑,
- 56', Pinto D. 🟨,
- 58', Landerson ↓, Kiko Bondoso ↑,
- 63', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
- 65', Stjepanovic M. 🟨,
- 66', 1 - 0, Samu (Penalty Awarded),
- 69', Gustavo ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 73', Rodri ↓, John N. ↑,
- 80', Martinez A. ↓, Yan Maranhao ↑,
- 80', Sousa D. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
- 80', Pinto D. ↓, Santos L. ↑,
- 83', Yan Maranhao 🟨,
- 90', John N. 🟨,
- 90+21', Samu 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
50.2% | Draw
28.6% | Moreirense
21.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitoria Guimarães's performance.Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Moreirense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitoria Guimarães that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+6.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Moreirense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.89 ↓
(2.12) |
3.29 ↓
(3.31) |
4.45 ↑
(3.52) |
5.9%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense?
Users Predictions:
32 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 25 - 78.1%). Moreirense will win (votes: 3 - 9.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 63.8% – 92.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Moreirense (1.80) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Moreirense (1.93) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 20 high ROI users predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 11 - 55%). Moreirense (votes: 5 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 2.
- Guimarães has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Moreirense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Guimarães is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Moreirense: Maracas
(Yellow Cards)
Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 1.3:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 1.1:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Moreirense?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense were as follows:
23.08.2025
Moreirense
-
Vitoria Guimarães
2:0
30.03.2025
Moreirense
-
Vitoria Guimarães
2:2
03.11.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Moreirense
1:0
30.03.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Moreirense
1:0
05.11.2023
Moreirense
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:0
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
