Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimarães – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Liga Portugal Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães
23/08/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Portugal - Round 3
  • Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
portugalPortugalTVI

Chances of winning


Moreirense
31%
Draw
30.3%
Vitoria Guimarães
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.2% 29% 45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24% 30.5% 48.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Moreirense's performance.
  • Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Moreirense that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+9.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.04
    (3.78)
    3.08
    (3.28)
    2.43
    (2.08)
    6.4%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães?
  • Users Predictions: Moreirense will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 1.
    • Moreirense is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Guimarães's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, Moreirense has had a series of home games.
    • Guimarães could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Moreirense: Guilherme Liberato (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Injury) Samu (Injury) Thiago Balieiro (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Moreirense: Michel (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Guimarães: Nobrega M. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:30. (average 0.9:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.5:1.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
    30.03.2025 Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães 2:2
    03.11.2024 Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense 1:0
    30.03.2024 Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense 1:0
    05.11.2023 Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães 1:0
    Latest results of Moreirense
    17.08.2025 Santa Clara - Moreirense 0:1
    10.08.2025 Moreirense - Alverca 2:1
    02.08.2025 Moreirense - Felgueiras 1:0
    26.07.2025 Moreirense - Chaves 0:0
    19.07.2025 Moreirense - Lusitânia 3:2
    Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sporting CP22008:086
    2Braga22006:066
    3FC Porto22005:056
    4Famalicao22004:046
    5Moreirense22003:126
    6Benfica11001:013
    7Gil Vicente21012:203
    8Casa Pia21012:203
    9Vitoria Guimaraes21013:5-23
    10Arouca21013:7-43
    11Rio Ave10101:101
    12Estrela20111:2-11
    13Estoril20113:4-11
    14Nacional20111:3-21
    15Santa Clara20020:4-40
    16Tondela20020:4-40
    17Alverca20021:5-40
    18AFS20021:5-40

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Liga Portugal (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2