Motagua vs CD Marathón – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Honduras Liga Nacional Motagua - CD Marathón
Result
3:3
17/08/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 5
  • Where to Watch on TV:
hondurasHondurasDeportes TV
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaCentro America TV
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
69
Shots on target
68
Corner Kicks
73
Yellow Cards
61
Total shots
69
Shots on target
68
Shots off target
01
Corner Kicks
73
Goalkeeper Saves
53

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 2', Bodden K. , Figueroa H. ,
  • 2', Cabrera M. 🟨,
  • 21', 0 - 1, Figueroa H. ,
  • 29', 0 - 2, Vega Orellana A. N. ,
  • 33', 1 - 2, Nunez J. ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Nunez J. , Sacaza G. ,
  • 46', Cabrera M. , Vazquez M. ,
  • 51', 1 - 3, Vega Orellana A. N. ,
  • 55', 2 - 3, Santos M. ,
  • 60', 3 - 3, Gomez R. ,
  • 65', Sacaza C. , Elvir S. ,
  • 65', Fernandez J. , Ramos O. ,
  • 65', Castillo I. , Bueso J. ,
  • 71', Farioli B. 🟨,
  • 72', Crisanto L. , Melendez C. ,
  • 76', Melendez C. 🟨,
  • 78', Vazquez M. 🟨,
  • 82', Santos M. 🟨,
  • 83', Serrano J. 🟨,
  • 84', Mejia C. , Argueta C. ,
  • 84', Serrano J. , Macias J. ,
  • 89', Melendez D. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Motagua
38.7%
Draw
28.7%
CD Marathón
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
34.8% 26.7% 38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1% 26.9% 38.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
  • CD Marathón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CD Marathón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CD Marathón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Motagua - CD Marathón Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.36
    (2.59)
    3.18
    (3.38)
    2.8
    (2.34)
    9.6%
    (10.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 0.
    • Recent performances by Motagua have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Marathón is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Marathón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:21. (average 1.7:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:10. (average 2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Motagua - CD Marathón were as follows:
    29.03.2025 CD Marathón - Motagua 1:1
    30.01.2025 Motagua - CD Marathón 2:2
    06.11.2024 CD Marathón - Motagua 2:1
    01.09.2024 Motagua - CD Marathón 0:1
    07.04.2024 CD Marathón - Motagua 1:1
    Latest results of Motagua
    14.08.2025 Motagua - Cartagines 0:0
    09.08.2025 Olancho - Motagua 3:1
    29.07.2025 Verdes - Motagua 1:4
    Latest results of CD Marathón
    Honduras Liga Nacional Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Olimpia642016:51114
    2Marathon632115:51011
    3Olancho632112:8411
    4Juticalpa63219:12-311
    5Real Espana63129:5410
    6Platense530211:659
    7UPNFM52127:9-27
    8Motagua51136:10-44
    9Choloma51138:16-84
    10Genesis51045:9-43
    11Victoria50050:13-130

          Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)