Nacional vs Estrela da Amadora – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Liga Portugal Nacional - Estrela da Amadora
Result
0:1
06/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Portugal - Round 28
  • Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
portugalPortugalSport TV6
romaniaRomaniaAntenaPLAY
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 7

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.591.05
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
1912
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
75
Passes
79% (294/372)69% (159/229)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
0.591.05
xG on target (xGOT)
0.371.07
Total shots
1912
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
76
Blocked Shots
83
Shots inside the Box
76
Shots outside the Box
126
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
75
Touches in opposition box
2014
Offsides
51
Free Kicks
1415
Passes
79% (294/372)69% (159/229)
Long passes
46% (31/67)43% (30/69)
Passes in final third
67% (70/105)54% (45/83)
Crosses
24% (5/21)29% (5/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.660.52
Fouls
1514
Tackles
80% (16/20)60% (12/20)
Duels won
6360
Clearances Total
3350
Interceptions
95
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.070.37
Goals prevented
0.070.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 21', Chico Banza 🟨,
  • 37', Matheus Dias 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 58', Varela N. , Semeu ,
  • 58', Rodrigo Pinho , Bucca L. ,
  • 58', Dudu , Macedo R. ,
  • 59', Appiah A. , Jose Gomes ,
  • 65', Daniel Penha , Bruno Costa ,
  • 65', Joel , Isaac ,
  • 72', Leo Cordeiro 🟨,
  • 73', Keliano M. , Amine ,
  • 74', Chico Banza , Jovane ,
  • 81', 0 - 1, Jovane , Kikas (A),
  • 83', Paulinho Boia , Yamada F. ,
  • 89', Leo Cordeiro , Moreira P. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Nacional
45.6%
Draw
29.4%
Estrela da Amadora
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46% 28.5% 25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4% 27.7% 24.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
  • Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
  • Nacional - Estrela da Amadora Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.06
    (2)
    3.19
    (3.23)
    3.74
    (3.62)
    6.6%
    (8.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Nacional - Estrela da Amadora?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Nacional will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 76.03%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 15).
    • Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Estrela is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Estrela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M. (Muscle Injury) Fernandes I. (Inactive) Soumare D. (Red Card)
    • There will not play in Estrela: Ferro (Yellow Cards) Lima R. (Red Card) Montoia G. (Red Card) Ruiz A. (Yellow Cards) Tiago Ferreira (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Estrela: Amine (Inactive) Lopes M. (Injury) Mina J. (Inactive)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
    10.11.2024 Estrela da Amadora - Nacional 2:0
    21.05.2023 Estrela da Amadora - Nacional 0:1
    15.01.2023 Nacional - Estrela da Amadora 0:1
    Latest results of Nacional
    30.03.2025 Santa Clara - Nacional 1:0
    08.03.2025 Benfica - Nacional 3:0
    01.03.2025 Nacional - Famalicão 2:1
    21.02.2025 Braga - Nacional 1:0
    15.02.2025 Nacional - Estoril Praia 2:2
    Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
    Liga Portugal Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sporting CP22008:086
    2Braga22006:066
    3FC Porto22005:056
    4Famalicao22004:046
    5Moreirense22003:126
    6Benfica11001:013
    7Gil Vicente21012:203
    8Casa Pia21012:203
    9Vitoria Guimaraes21013:5-23
    10Arouca21013:7-43
    11Rio Ave10101:101
    12Estrela20111:2-11
    13Estoril20113:4-11
    14Nacional20111:3-21
    15Santa Clara20020:4-40
    16Tondela20020:4-40
    17Alverca20021:5-40
    18AFS20021:5-40

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