Result
0:1
06/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 28
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Finland | Veikkaus TV |
Portugal | Sport TV6 |
Romania | AntenaPLAY |
Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7 |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.59 | 1.05 |
Ball Possession |
---|
61% | 39% |
Total shots |
---|
19 | 12 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
79% (294/372) | 69% (159/229) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.59 | 1.05 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.37 | 1.07 |
Total shots |
---|
19 | 12 |
Shots on target |
---|
4 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
7 | 6 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
8 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
7 | 6 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
12 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
20 | 14 |
Offsides |
---|
5 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
14 | 15 |
Passes |
---|
79% (294/372) | 69% (159/229) |
Long passes |
---|
46% (31/67) | 43% (30/69) |
Passes in final third |
---|
67% (70/105) | 54% (45/83) |
Crosses |
---|
24% (5/21) | 29% (5/17) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.66 | 0.52 |
Fouls |
---|
15 | 14 |
Tackles |
---|
80% (16/20) | 60% (12/20) |
Duels won |
---|
63 | 60 |
Clearances Total |
---|
33 | 50 |
Interceptions |
---|
9 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
1 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.07 | 0.37 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.07 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Chico Banza 🟨,
- 37', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 58', Varela N. ↓, Semeu ↑,
- 58', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Bucca L. ↑,
- 58', Dudu ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
- 59', Appiah A. ↓, Jose Gomes ↑,
- 65', Daniel Penha ↓, Bruno Costa ↑,
- 65', Joel ↓, Isaac ↑,
- 72', Leo Cordeiro 🟨,
- 73', Keliano M. ↓, Amine ↑,
- 74', Chico Banza ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 81', 0 - 1, Jovane ⚽, Kikas (A),
- 83', Paulinho Boia ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
- 89', Leo Cordeiro ↓, Moreira P. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional 45.6% | Draw 29.4% | Estrela da Amadora 25% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Nacional - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.06 ↑ (2) |
3.19 ↓ (3.23) |
3.74 ↑ (3.62) |
6.6% (8.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Estrela da Amadora?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Nacional will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 15).
- Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Estrela is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Estrela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Muscle Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Soumare D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Estrela: Ferro
(Yellow Cards)
Lima R.
(Red Card)
Montoia G.
(Red Card)
Ruiz A.
(Yellow Cards)
Tiago Ferreira
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Amine
(Inactive)
Lopes M.
(Injury)
Mina J.
(Inactive)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1:0.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estrela da Amadora?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Nacional?
Estrela da Amadora has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
10.11.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
2:0
21.05.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
0:1
15.01.2023
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Estrela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
5 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
7 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
8 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
9 | Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
10 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
11 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
13 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
14 | Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | Tondela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
18 | AFS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2