Result
2:0
04/04/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (248/314) | 78% (257/331) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.50 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (248/314) | 78% (257/331) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (16/49) | 51% (33/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (70/100) | 51% (42/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (4/12) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (9/17) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.16 | 0.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | -1.45 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 1', Luan Patrick 🟨,
- 2', 1 - 0, Ramirez J. ⚽,
- 16', Rodrigo Pinho 🟨,
- 45+3', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Sola A. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
- 46', Stoica I. ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 49', Baeza M. ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 71', 2 - 0, Paulinho Boia ⚽, Leo Santos (A),
- 74', Doue G. ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
- 75', Langa B. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
- 77', Jose Gomes ↓, Vallier L. ↑,
- 77', Liziero ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 78', Nunez A. 🟨,
- 81', Encada J. 🟨,
- 85', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
- 86', Daniel Junior 🟨,
- 89', Gabriel Veron ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
- 90+6', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/mvar4ypk
Chances of winning
Nacional
46% | Draw
27.2% | Estrela da Amadora
26.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Nacional - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.07 ↑
(2.01) |
3.5 ↑
(3.39) |
3.53 ↓
(3.63) |
5.3%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nacional - Estrela da Amadora?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 54% – 99.8%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nacional will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Nacional is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Estrela has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Nacional will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Ankle Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Jose Gomes
(Muscle Injury)
Liziero
(Injury)
Matheus Dias
(Yellow Cards)
Ulisses
(Broken calfbone)
- There will not play in Estrela: Encada J.
(Muscle Injury)
Robinho
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Injury)
Lucas Franca
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Drame I.
(Injury)
Gbomadu M.
(Injury)
Lekovic S.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estrela da Amadora?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Nacional?
Estrela da Amadora has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
09.11.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
1:1
06.04.2025
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
10.11.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
2:0
21.05.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
0:1
15.01.2023
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
