Result
1:1
09/11/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 11
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 9 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 1.26 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (349/442) | 68% (183/269) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.80 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (349/442) | 68% (183/269) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (30/58) | 29% (14/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (46/76) | 55% (40/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 33% (6/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.93 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 35% (6/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.80 | 1.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.20 | 0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 18', Encada J. ↓, Bernardo Schappo ↑,
- 22', Montoia G. 🟨,
- 26', Bernardo Schappo 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 1, Jose Gomes ⚽, Liziero (A),
- 45+4', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 56', Robinho ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 62', 1 - 1, Cabral S. (Pen),
- 74', Chernev A. 🟨,
- 84', Kikas ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 84', Marcus A. ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
- 85', Witi ↓, Watts ↑,
- 85', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 85', Paulinho Boia ↓, Nourani M. ↑,
- 87', Watts 🟨,
- 90+2', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 90+7', Goncalves C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
37% | Draw
30.4% | Nacional
32.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
Estrela da Amadora - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.63 ↓
(2.91) |
3.13 ↓
(3.21) |
2.92 ↑
(2.48) |
4.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 3.
- Estrela has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nacional is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Lucas Franca
(Finger Injury)
Ulisses
(Inactive)
Ze Vitor
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Bernardo Schappo
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Nacional?
Estrela da Amadora has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estrela da Amadora?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Nacional were as follows:
06.04.2025
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
10.11.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
2:0
21.05.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
0:1
15.01.2023
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
