Result
0:1
06/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 28
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV6 |
 Romania | AntenaPLAY |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.05 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (294/372) | 69% (159/229) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.37 | 1.07 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (294/372) | 69% (159/229) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (31/67) | 43% (30/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (70/105) | 54% (45/83) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.52 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (16/20) | 60% (12/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 60 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 33 | 50 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.07 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 21', Chico Banza 🟨,
- 37', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 58', Varela N. ↓, Semeu ↑,
- 58', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Bucca L. ↑,
- 58', Dudu ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
- 59', Appiah A. ↓, Jose Gomes ↑,
- 65', Daniel Penha ↓, Bruno Costa ↑,
- 65', Joel ↓, Isaac ↑,
- 72', Leo Cordeiro 🟨,
- 73', Keliano M. ↓, Amine ↑,
- 74', Chico Banza ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 81', 0 - 1, Jovane ⚽, Kikas (A),
- 83', Paulinho Boia ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
- 89', Leo Cordeiro ↓, Moreira P. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional
45.6% | Draw
29.4% | Estrela da Amadora
25% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Nacional - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.06 ↑
(2) |
3.19 ↓
(3.23) |
3.74 ↑
(3.62) |
6.6%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Estrela da Amadora?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Nacional (votes: 3 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Nacional will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 15).
- Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Estrela is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Estrela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Muscle Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Soumare D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Estrela: Ferro
(Yellow Cards)
Lima R.
(Red Card)
Montoia G.
(Red Card)
Ruiz A.
(Yellow Cards)
Tiago Ferreira
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Amine
(Inactive)
Lopes M.
(Injury)
Mina J.
(Inactive)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1:0.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estrela da Amadora?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Nacional?
Estrela da Amadora has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
10.11.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
2:0
21.05.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Nacional
0:1
15.01.2023
Nacional
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
