Result
2:1
15/04/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League One - Round 43
- Referee: Durkin J. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.07 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (370/441) | 73% (235/320) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.07 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 0.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (370/441) | 73% (235/320) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (22/55) | 30% (19/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (88/122) | 57% (51/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (7/30) | 12% (2/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 1.28 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 89% (17/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.65 | -0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 31', 0 - 1, Hoskins S. ⚽, Eaves T. (A),
- 43', 1 - 1, Walsh L. ⚽, Lawrence E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Richards J. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
- 62', McGeehan C. 🟨,
- 66', Wells N. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
- 71', Burroughs J. ↓, McCarthy C. ↑,
- 72', Fornah T. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,
- 72', Jacobs M. ↓, List E. ↑,
- 76', McCarthy C. 🟨,
- 77', Guthrie J. 🟨,
- 82', Clark J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
- 82', Lawrence E. ↓, Kodua G. ↑,
- 82', Hoskins S. ↓, Taylor T. ↑,
- 82', Eaves T. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 1, Naismith K. ⚽,
- 90', Walsh L. ↓, Saville G. ↑,
- 90+1', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
- 90+4', Keeley J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Luton Town
73.7% | Draw
16.6% | Northampton Town
9.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luton Town's performance.Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
Luton Town - Northampton Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.27 ↓
(1.44) |
5.59 ↑
(4.43) |
9.81 ↑
(6.72) |
6.7%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Northampton Town?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 16 - 84.2%). Northampton will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 67.8% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4.
- Luton is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Northampton has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Northampton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Luton has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Luton is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Hip Injury)
Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Holmes T.
(Inactive)
Mengi T.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Northampton: List E.
(Inactive)
Shaw L.
(Knee Injury)
Wormleighton J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Luton: Jones I.
(Injury)
- We predict that Luton will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Luton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Northampton Town?
Luton Town has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Northampton Town won against Luton Town?
Northampton Town has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Northampton Town were as follows:
04.03.2026
Luton Town
-
Northampton Town
2:1
25.10.2025
Northampton Town
-
Luton Town
0:1
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Northampton Town
English League One Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lincoln ✔ | 45 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 87:41 | 46 | 100 |
| 2 | Cardiff ✔ | 45 | 27 | 10 | 8 | 86:45 | 41 | 91 |
| 3 | Bolton ✔ | 45 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 68:49 | 19 | 75 |
| 4 | Stockport County | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 68:57 | 11 | 74 |
| 5 | Bradford City | 45 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 56:50 | 6 | 74 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 48:46 | 2 | 72 |
| 7 | Luton | 45 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 65:54 | 11 | 71 |
| 8 | Plymouth | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 72:61 | 11 | 70 |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 45 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 70:64 | 6 | 64 |
| 10 | Reading | 45 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 64:59 | 5 | 63 |
| 11 | Mansfield | 45 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 57:46 | 11 | 62 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 45 | 16 | 12 | 17 | 66:56 | 10 | 60 |
| 13 | Barnsley | 45 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 67:70 | -3 | 59 |
| 14 | Blackpool | 45 | 16 | 9 | 20 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
| 15 | Doncaster | 45 | 16 | 9 | 20 | 47:68 | -21 | 57 |
| 16 | Wigan | 45 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 49:57 | -8 | 56 |
| 17 | Peterborough | 45 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 63:65 | -2 | 53 |
| 18 | Burton | 45 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 48:58 | -10 | 53 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 51:68 | -17 | 53 |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 45 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 57:69 | -12 | 51 |
| 21 | Exeter | 45 | 12 | 13 | 20 | 51:59 | -8 | 49 |
| 22 | Port Vale ✔ | 45 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 36:59 | -23 | 42 |
| 23 | Rotherham ✔ | 45 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 39:68 | -29 | 41 |
| 24 | Northampton ✔ | 45 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 37:71 | -34 | 35 |
Promotion ~ Championship
Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ League Two
Clinched Spots for Teams
Lincoln is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Championship
Cardiff is Qualified for Championship
Bolton is Qualified for League One (Play Offs )
Port Vale is Relegated to League Two
Rotherham is Relegated to League Two
Northampton is Relegated to League Two
