Result
1:2
28/02/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 27
- Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.54 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (382/461) | 75% (239/318) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.54 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (382/461) | 75% (239/318) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (30/55) | 42% (28/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (131/176) | 62% (66/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (3/34) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 35 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 55% (12/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 7 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.31 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.85 | -0.69 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 5', Harder J. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
- 8', 0 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽, Di Mariano F. (A),
- 14', 0 - 2, Faedo C. ⚽, Buonaiuto C. (A),
- 28', Beyuku G. ↓, Massolin Y. ↑,
- 44', Buonaiuto C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', Massolin Y. 🟨,
- 53', Ambrosino G. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
- 54', Nieling B. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
- 56', 1 - 2, Zanimacchia L. ⚽, Gliozzi E. (A),
- 60', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 68', Pastina C. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
- 68', Di Mariano F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 68', Lasagna K. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
- 73', De Luca M. ↓, Imputato A. ↑,
- 73', Zampano F. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
- 74', Fortin M. 🟨,
- 89', Nador S. 🟨,
- 90+1', Varas K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Modena
64.4% | Draw
22.2% | Padova
13.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
Modena - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.46 ↓
(1.52) |
4.24 ↑
(3.85) |
6.98 ↑
(6.39) |
6.4%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Modena - Padova?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 3.
- Modena is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Padova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Modena is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Modena: Pyyhtia N.
(Inactive)
Sersanti A.
(Inactive)
Tonoli D.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Fusi P.
(Yellow Cards)
Ghiglione P.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
Perrotta M.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Modena won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 0.9:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Modena won against Padova?
Modena has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Modena?
Padova has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Modena - Padova were as follows:
11.01.2026
Padova
-
Modena
2:0
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 68:29 | 39 | 72 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 65:33 | 32 | 69 |
| 3 | Monza | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 53:27 | 26 | 69 |
| 4 | Palermo | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55:28 | 27 | 65 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 51:40 | 11 | 54 |
| 6 | Modena | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 44:29 | 15 | 51 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 41:41 | 0 | 48 |
| 8 | Cesena | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 42:50 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | Carrarese | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 44:45 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Sudtirol | 34 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 36:37 | -1 | 40 |
| 11 | Mantova | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:48 | -9 | 40 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 34:44 | -10 | 40 |
| 13 | Avellino | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 38:54 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 33:45 | -12 | 37 |
| 15 | Empoli | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 43:49 | -6 | 36 |
| 16 | Entella | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 17 | Bari | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 33:53 | -20 | 34 |
| 18 | Reggiana | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33:52 | -19 | 33 |
| 19 | Pescara | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 47:61 | -14 | 32 |
| 20 | Spezia | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 32:51 | -19 | 30 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
