Result
3:2
07/03/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Meistriliiga - Round 1
- Referee: Jaanovits J. (Est)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Estonia | Soccernet TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 26', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 2)
- 46', Poder J. ↓, Limberg M. ↑,
- 55', 0 - 1, Sohna M. P. ⚽, Anier H. (A),
- 59', 0 - 2, Smirnov R. ⚽,
- 62', 1 - 2, Viidas S. ⚽,
- 64', Valja H. 🟨,
- 73', Anier H. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
- 73', Baranov N. ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
- 78', 2 - 2, Valja H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 82', Nigula R. 🟨,
- 83', 3 - 2, Viidas S. ⚽,
- 85', Ojamaa H. 🟨,
- 86', 🟨,
- 87', Viidas S. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
- 87', Nigula R. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
- 87', Luts D. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Pärnu Vaprus
15.2% | Draw
21% | Paide LM
63.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paide LM's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paide LM, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.09 ↑
(4.93) |
4.4 ↑
(3.65) |
1.45 ↓
(1.63) |
8.3%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +1 - Pärnu Vaprus (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 1.
- Pärnu Vaprus has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Paide is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Pärnu Vaprus may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Paide has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Paide is the clear favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pärnu Vaprus won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:40. (average 0.9:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu Vaprus won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.9:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Pärnu Vaprus won against Paide LM?
Pärnu Vaprus has won 3 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paide LM won against Pärnu Vaprus?
Paide LM has won 8 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM were as follows:
02.11.2025
Paide LM
-
Pärnu Vaprus
3:0
30.08.2025
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Paide LM
1:0
18.06.2025
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Paide LM
1:2
09.04.2025
Paide LM
-
Pärnu Vaprus
1:0
23.10.2024
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Paide LM
0:1
Latest results of Pärnu Vaprus
Latest results of Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Levadia | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 24:7 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Kalju | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19:6 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Paide | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Harju JK Laagri | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14:12 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Flora | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16:12 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Nomme Utd | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:22 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9:18 | -9 | 10 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 9 |
| 9 | Tammeka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 10 | Narva | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9:26 | -17 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Esiliiga
