Result
1:2
21/11/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 15
- Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.31 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (472/564) | 80% (292/364) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.31 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.03 | 1.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (472/564) | 80% (292/364) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (42/70) | 51% (31/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (129/179) | 60% (58/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (5/32) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 43% (9/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.46 | 1.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.46 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 5', 1 - 0, Touzghar R. ⚽, Pouilly T. (A),
- 27', 1 - 1, Briancon A. (Own goal),
- 35', Sissoko O. 🟨,
- 38', Beusnard S. 🟨,
- 39', 1 - 2, Gueye D. (Pen),
- 45', Versini G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 51', Rabillard A. 🟨,
- 57', Messi R. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
- 59', Robin M. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
- 59', Rabillard A. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
- 66', Ruiz J. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
- 66', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
- 66', Touzghar R. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
- 68', Quarshie E. 🟨,
- 69', Calodat L. ↓, Ribelin A. ↑,
- 78', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
- 81', Gueye D. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
- 81', Quarshie E. ↓, Hammoudi I. ↑,
- 87', Hammoudi I. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Pau
35% | Draw
29% | Le Mans
36% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Pau - Le Mans Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.62 ↑
(2.35) |
3.27 ↓
(3.41) |
2.66 ↓
(2.85) |
6.3%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Pau - Le Mans?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Le Mans will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 12% – 65%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7)
- Pau has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Le Mans is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Pau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Pau: Gasnier K.
(Inactive)
Gaspar J.
(Inactive)
Raveyre N.
(Injury)
Ruiz J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Le Mans: Cisse A.
(Injury)
Gomes M.
(Injury)
Vercruysse J.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Pau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Le Mans?
Pau has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Le Mans won against Pau?
Le Mans has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Le Mans were as follows:
Latest results of Le Mans
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 38:25 | 13 | 45 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 41:29 | 12 | 43 |
| 3 | Reims | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 37:23 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Le Mans | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 30:24 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Red Star | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 30:25 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Dunkerque | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40:25 | 15 | 38 |
| 7 | Annecy | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32:25 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Rodez | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Montpellier | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 28:25 | 3 | 34 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 34 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 24:29 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | Nancy | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 21:32 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 26 |
| 15 | Clermont | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 25 |
| 16 | Amiens | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
| 17 | Bastia | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12:25 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Laval | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 18:34 | -16 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
