Result
1:2
26/09/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 8
- Referee: Abed K. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 2.57 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (294/350) | 88% (398/454) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 2.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 2.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 43 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (294/350) | 88% (398/454) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (15/38) | 66% (37/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (70/110) | 80% (126/157) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (7/26) | 24% (10/42) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 2.14 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 27 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 46 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.96 | 0.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.96 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 8', Briancon A. 🟨,
- 21', 0 - 1, Magnin M. (Own goal),
- 24', 1 - 1, Benchamma S. ⚽, Jean-Lambert E. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 61', Versini G. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
- 61', Meddah D. ↓, Touzghar R. ↑,
- 62', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
- 65', Achi M. ↓, Joly O. ↑,
- 65', Galves N. ↓, Tourraine M. ↑,
- 67', Karamoko S. 🟨,
- 71', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
- 75', Mendes J. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
- 75', Balde I. ↓, Nagera K. ↑,
- 84', 1 - 2, Sadik O. ⚽, Glossoa N. (A),
- 85', Sadik O. 🟨,
- 86', Bobichon A. ↓, Zuliani E. ↑,
- 88', Benchamma S. ↓, Baaloudj M. ↑,
- 89', Saka M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Rodez
40.1% | Draw
29.4% | Pau
30.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rodez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rodez's form might have worsened.Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pau's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+12.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rodez, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-7.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Rodez - Pau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.36 ↑
(1.86) |
3.24 ↓
(3.74) |
3.21 ↓
(4.05) |
4.4%
(5.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Rodez - Pau?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Rodez will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Pau will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rodez: 26.7% – 80.9%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 3.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Rodez will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Rodez: Arconte T.
(Inactive)
Crombez E.
(Inactive)
Tebily H.
(Inactive)
Trouillet A.
(Inactive)
Vangi D.
(Inactive)
Younoussa W.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J.
(Inactive)
Lebouath S.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:26. (average 1.7:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rodez won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Rodez won against Pau?
Rodez has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Rodez?
Pau has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rodez - Pau were as follows:
02.08.2025
Rodez
-
Pau
2:4
14.02.2025
Pau
-
Rodez
0:5
06.12.2024
Rodez
-
Pau
1:0
03.08.2024
Rodez
-
Pau
1:4
13.01.2024
Rodez
-
Pau
2:1
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Pau FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17:10 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Red Star | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:8 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reims | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Guingamp | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:19 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Nancy | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Montpellier | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Rodez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Le Mans | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Clermont | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:13 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Amiens | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Annecy | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Boulogne | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7:11 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Laval | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7:11 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Grenoble | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Bastia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:11 | -7 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
