Ferroviária vs Paysandu – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

.

Serie B Superbet - Round 33
Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.58
Ball Possession
54%	46%
Total shots
20	7
Shots on target
10	3
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
7	2
Passes
79% (300/380)	74% (256/344)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.58
xG on target (xGOT)
3.00	0.75
Total shots
20	7
Shots on target
10	3
Shots off target
7	3
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
9	5
Shots outside the Box
11	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
7	2
Touches in opposition box
25	13
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
18	13
Passes
79% (300/380)	74% (256/344)
Long passes
57% (27/47)	38% (24/63)
Passes in final third
66% (86/131)	49% (38/78)
Crosses
24% (8/34)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.53	0.78
Throw-ins
36	24
Fouls
13	18
Tackles
54% (7/13)	75% (9/12)
Duels won
46	41
Clearances
21	31
Interceptions
13	17
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	7
xGOT faced
0.75	3.00
Goals prevented
-1.25	1.00

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Carlao ⚽, Fabricio Daniel (A),
15', 1 - 1, Thiago Heleno ⚽, Reverson (A),
25', Ricardinho 🟨,
31', 1 - 2, Wendel ⚽, Mauricio Garcez (A),
36', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
45+6', Thalisson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Petterson Novaes ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
60', Vitor Barreto ↓, Albano ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Albano ⚽, Juninho (A),
68', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
72', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
79', Juninho ↓, Fabio ↑,
79', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
79', Wendel ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
79', Ze Mario ↓, Eric Melo ↑,
79', Thiago Heleno ↓, Lucca Carvalho ↑,
89', Denner ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,

Chances of winning

Ferroviária
49.5%

Draw
28.4%

Paysandu
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

30%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

26.9%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paysandu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferroviária - Paysandu Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2)	3.45 ↑ (3.05)	4.57 ↑ (3.75)	1.9% (9.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Paysandu?

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paysandu (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Paysandu has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Ferroviária is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson (Knee Injury) Edson Lucas (Inactive) Fabricio Daniel (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Injury) Gustavo Medina (Yellow Cards) Ian Luccas (Inactive) Juninho (Injury) Netinho (Yellow Cards) Thayllon (Injury)
There will not play in Paysandu: Anderson Leite (Ankle Injury) Diogo Oliveira (Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Edinho (Inactive) Leandro Vilela (Injury) Marlon Douglas (Yellow Cards) Matheus Vargas (Injury)
There are questionable in Ferroviária: Gustavo Medina (Injury)
There are questionable in Paysandu: Bryan Borges (Injury) Thiago Heleno (Shoulder Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Paysandu?

Ferroviária has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Ferroviária?

Paysandu has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Paysandu were as follows:

30.06.2025 Paysandu - Ferroviária 2:1

Latest results of Ferroviária

13.10.2025 CRB Maceio - Ferroviária 2:2 ✺

09.10.2025 Ferroviária - Chapecoense 0:1 ✺

04.10.2025 Ferroviária - América Mineiro 1:3 ✺

28.09.2025 Botafogo SP - Ferroviária 1:2 ✺

23.09.2025 Ferroviária - Goiás 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Paysandu

14.10.2025 Paysandu - Remo 2:3 ✺

07.10.2025 Botafogo SP - Paysandu 1:0 ✺

02.10.2025 Paysandu - Cuiabá 1:1 ✺

28.09.2025 Criciúma - Paysandu 2:4 ✺

23.09.2025 Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coritiba	34	17	9	8	35:21	14	60
2	Remo	34	15	12	7	45:33	12	57
3	Goias	34	15	10	9	39:33	6	55
4	Novorizontino	34	14	13	7	37:28	9	55
5	Chapecoense-SC	33	16	6	11	47:32	15	54
6	Criciuma	34	15	9	10	44:32	12	54
7	Athletico-PR	33	14	8	11	45:42	3	50
8	Cuiaba	34	13	11	10	41:40	1	50
9	CRB	33	14	6	13	39:34	5	48
10	Avai	34	12	12	10	43:36	7	48
11	Atletico GO	33	12	12	9	36:33	3	48
12	Vila Nova FC	33	11	10	12	32:34	-2	43
13	Operario-PR	33	11	9	13	34:37	-3	42
14	America MG	34	11	8	15	37:40	-3	41
15	Ferroviaria	33	8	14	11	38:44	-6	38
16	Athletic Club	34	10	7	17	38:49	-11	37
17	Botafogo SP	34	8	11	15	30:50	-20	35
18	Volta Redonda	34	8	10	16	23:37	-14	34
19	Amazonas	33	7	11	15	33:48	-15	32
20	Paysandu PA	34	5	12	17	31:44	-13	27

Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )