Ferroviária vs Paysandu – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Ferroviária - Paysandu
Result
2:2
20/10/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 33
  • Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.58
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
207
Shots on target
103
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
79% (300/380)74% (256/344)
Yellow Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.58
xG on target (xGOT)
3.000.75
Total shots
207
Shots on target
103
Shots off target
73
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
95
Shots outside the Box
112
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
2513
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1813
Passes
79% (300/380)74% (256/344)
Long passes
57% (27/47)38% (24/63)
Passes in final third
66% (86/131)49% (38/78)
Crosses
24% (8/34)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.530.78
Throw-ins
3624
Fouls
1318
Tackles
54% (7/13)75% (9/12)
Duels won
4641
Clearances
2131
Interceptions
1317
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
17
xGOT faced
0.753.00
Goals prevented
-1.251.00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 2', 1 - 0, Carlao , Fabricio Daniel (A),
  • 15', 1 - 1, Thiago Heleno , Reverson (A),
  • 25', Ricardinho 🟨,
  • 31', 1 - 2, Wendel , Mauricio Garcez (A),
  • 36', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
  • 45+6', Thalisson 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Petterson Novaes , Gustavo Nicola ,
  • 60', Vitor Barreto , Albano ,
  • 66', 2 - 2, Albano , Juninho (A),
  • 68', Fabricio Daniel , Thiago Lopes ,
  • 72', Ronaldo Henrique , Marcelinho ,
  • 79', Juninho , Fabio ,
  • 79', Ricardinho , Tarik ,
  • 79', Wendel , Vinicius Faria ,
  • 79', Ze Mario , Eric Melo ,
  • 79', Thiago Heleno , Lucca Carvalho ,
  • 89', Denner , Joao Marcos ,

Chances of winning


Ferroviária
49.5%
Draw
28.4%
Paysandu
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45.7% 30% 24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41% 26.9% 27.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ferroviária that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paysandu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Ferroviária - Paysandu Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.96
    (2)
    3.45
    (3.05)
    4.57
    (3.75)
    1.9%
    (9.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Paysandu?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paysandu (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
    • Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Paysandu has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Ferroviária is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson (Knee Injury) Edson Lucas (Inactive) Fabricio Daniel (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Injury) Gustavo Medina (Yellow Cards) Ian Luccas (Inactive) Juninho (Injury) Netinho (Yellow Cards) Thayllon (Injury)
    • There will not play in Paysandu: Anderson Leite (Ankle Injury) Diogo Oliveira (Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Edinho (Inactive) Leandro Vilela (Injury) Marlon Douglas (Yellow Cards) Matheus Vargas (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Ferroviária: Gustavo Medina (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Paysandu: Bryan Borges (Injury) Thiago Heleno (Shoulder Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Paysandu were as follows:
    30.06.2025 Paysandu - Ferroviária 2:1
    Latest results of Ferroviária
    Latest results of Paysandu
    14.10.2025 Paysandu - Remo 2:3
    07.10.2025 Botafogo SP - Paysandu 1:0
    02.10.2025 Paysandu - Cuiabá 1:1
    28.09.2025 Criciúma - Paysandu 2:4
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coritiba34179835:211460
    2Remo341512745:331257
    3Goias341510939:33655
    4Novorizontino341413737:28955
    5Chapecoense-SC331661147:321554
    6Criciuma341591044:321254
    7Athletico-PR331481145:42350
    8Cuiaba3413111041:40150
    9CRB331461339:34548
    10Avai3412121043:36748
    11Atletico GO331212936:33348
    12Vila Nova FC3311101232:34-243
    13Operario-PR331191334:37-342
    14America MG341181537:40-341
    15Ferroviaria338141138:44-638
    16Athletic Club341071738:49-1137
    17Botafogo SP348111530:50-2035
    18Volta Redonda348101623:37-1434
    19Amazonas337111533:48-1532
    20Paysandu PA345121731:44-1327

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )