Result
0:1
06/02/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal 2 - Round 21
- Referee: Rodrigues J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sporting TV, Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 18 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 37', Santos A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Santos A. ↓, Anzai S. ↑,
- 49', Alves R. 🟨,
- 54', 0 - 1, Anzai S. ⚽,
- 58', Schutte R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
- 59', Pereira B. 🟨,
- 59', Ktatau ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
- 63', Alves R. ↓, Reko ↑,
- 63', Pereira B. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
- 65', Bruno Rodrigues 🟨,
- 67', Kusso D. 🟨,
- 68', Delgado J. ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
- 68', Alves R. ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
- 71', Rodrigues A. 🟨,
- 77', Joao Teixeira ↓, Pinho P. ↑,
- 77', Kusso D. ↓, Romero A. ↑,
- 85', Simoes T. 🟨,
- 85', Mere J. ↓, Injai M. ↑,
- 90+3', Femenias J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Chaves
55.4% | Draw
26.7% | Penafiel
17.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
Chaves - Penafiel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.67 ↓
(1.81) |
3.48 ↑
(3.38) |
5.13 ↑
(4.19) |
8.2%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Chaves - Penafiel?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Chaves (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Chaves will win
(8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 2.
- Chaves is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Penafiel's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Penafiel has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Chaves is considered a favorite.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Chaves won against Penafiel?
Chaves has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Penafiel won against Chaves?
Penafiel has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Chaves - Penafiel were as follows:
30.08.2025
Penafiel
-
Chaves
0:2
15.05.2025
Penafiel
-
Chaves
0:0
04.01.2025
Chaves
-
Penafiel
0:1
18.07.2023
Penafiel
-
Chaves
1:2
Latest results of Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Maritimo | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38:19 | 19 | 47 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44:26 | 18 | 44 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 37:23 | 14 | 38 |
| 4 | FC Porto B | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:31 | 0 | 37 |
| 5 | Torreense | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 28:27 | 1 | 36 |
| 6 | Leiria | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 34:31 | 3 | 35 |
| 7 | Vizela | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 30:28 | 2 | 35 |
| 8 | Lusitania FC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 33:37 | -4 | 34 |
| 9 | Feirense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28:27 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 33:31 | 2 | 31 |
| 11 | Leixoes | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 27:40 | -13 | 31 |
| 12 | Chaves | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27:24 | 3 | 30 |
| 13 | Felgueiras | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 21:23 | -2 | 28 |
| 15 | SC Farense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22:31 | -9 | 27 |
| 16 | Oliveirense | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 20:32 | -12 | 24 |
| 18 | Portimonense | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 25:35 | -10 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )
Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga 3
