Result
2:2
19/10/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 12
- Referee: Myc W. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | FOX Sports 2 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 9 |
 Poland | CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 1.54 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (423/500) | 76% (197/259) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 1.54 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.57 | 1.11 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 26 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (423/500) | 76% (197/259) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 70% (35/50) | 47% (28/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (135/175) | 66% (68/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (3/35) | 46% (6/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 0.67 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 55% (6/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 48 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.11 | 3.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.89 | 1.57 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 15', 0 - 1, Grosicki K. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 51', 1 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Palma L. (A),
- 63', Kozubal A. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
- 63', Jagiello F. 🟨,
- 69', Juwara M. ↓, Ali H. ↑,
- 76', Grosicki K. ↓, Mukairu P. ↑,
- 76', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
- 76', Ismaheel T. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
- 76', Keramitsis D. ↓, Smolinski K. ↑,
- 82', Rodriguez P. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
- 82', Palma L. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
- 89', 2 - 1, Bengtsson L. ⚽, Jagiello F. (A),
- 90', Greenwood S. ↓, Pozo J. ↑,
- 90', Molnar R. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 2, Mukairu P. ⚽, Pozo J. (A),
Chances of winning
Lech Poznań
50.7% | Draw
24.3% | Pogoń Szczecin
25% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-2%)
Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.96 ↑
(1.77) |
3.95 ↓
(3.95) |
3.76 ↓
(3.94) |
2.9%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Lech Poznań will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 3.
- Lech is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Pogoń Szczecin is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Lech is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Lech: Gholizadeh A.
(Thigh Injury)
Hakans D.
(Ankle Injury)
Murawski R.
(Leg Injury)
Walemark P.
(Surgery)
- There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Leo Borges
(Injury)
- We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 1.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Lech Poznań won against Pogoń Szczecin?
Lech Poznań has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pogoń Szczecin won against Lech Poznań?
Pogoń Szczecin has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin were as follows:
01.03.2025
Pogoń Szczecin
-
Lech Poznań
0:3
25.08.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Pogoń Szczecin
2:0
07.04.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Pogoń Szczecin
1:0
27.02.2024
Lech Poznań
-
Pogoń Szczecin
0:1
01.10.2023
Pogoń Szczecin
-
Lech Poznań
5:0
Latest results of Lech Poznań
Latest results of Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21:11 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Jagiellonia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24:15 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Cracovia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21:14 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Korona Kielce | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16:12 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20:18 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25:18 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Rakow | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:16 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20:23 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Widzew Lodz | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Legia | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 15 |
| 12 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22:22 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Arka Gdynia | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9:20 | -11 | 15 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17:24 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 22:29 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Termalica B-B | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
