Result
0:2
07/12/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 13
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7 |
 Denmark | Bold+, Sport Live |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Lithuania | Sport 1 |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 3 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.92 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 25% | 75% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (158/214) | 87% (565/646) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.40 | 2.91 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (158/214) | 87% (565/646) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (20/49) | 51% (21/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (39/68) | 63% (91/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.41 | 0.60 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 34 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.91 | 0.40 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 39', Sithole S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 48', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽,
- 49', 0 - 2, William Gomes ⚽,
- 58', Moudjatovic M. ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
- 59', Medina B. ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
- 59', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
- 60', Manso T. 🟨,
- 63', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
- 63', Mora R. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
- 69', Sithole S. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 78', Pepê ↓, Alarcon A. ↑,
- 79', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
- 82', Felix H. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 82', Costa A. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
- 90+1', Moura F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tondela
7.5% | Draw
15.3% | Porto
77.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Tondela - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
12.75 ↑
(9.85) |
6.19 ↑
(5.41) |
1.23 ↓
(1.3) |
5.5%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Tondela - Porto?
Users Predictions:
34 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 5 - 14.7%). Porto will win (votes: 27 - 79.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 65.8% – 93%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Porto (1.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.5 - Porto (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Porto (votes: 14 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.
- Tondela is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Porto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Porto is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Tondela: Souza G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Porto: Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Bebeto
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 8:38. (average 0.5:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:13. (average 0.3:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Porto?
Tondela has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Tondela?
Porto has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Porto were as follows:
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
