Real Madrid vs Olympique Marseille – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Football UEFA Champions League Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille
Result
2:1
16/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 1
  • Referee: Peljto I. (Bih)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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worldWorldSport 24

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.650.73
Ball Possession
43%57%
Total shots
2815
Shots on target
155
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
94
Passes
86% (344/402)87% (455/524)
Yellow Cards
32
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
3.650.73
xG on target (xGOT)
3.610.46
Total shots
2815
Shots on target
155
Shots off target
88
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
2010
Shots outside the Box
85
Hit the Woodwork
20
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
4929
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
149
Passes
86% (344/402)87% (455/524)
Long passes
51% (21/41)42% (13/31)
Passes in final third
75% (115/153)75% (64/85)
Crosses
27% (3/11)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.120.70
Throw-ins
1511
Fouls
914
Tackles
73% (8/11)68% (15/22)
Duels won
3849
Clearances
1723
Interceptions
106
Errors leading to shot
15
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
413
xGOT faced
0.463.61
Goals prevented
-0.541.61

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 5', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
  • 22', 0 - 1, Weah T. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
  • 29', 1 - 1, Mbappe K. (Pen),
  • 35', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Pavard B. 🟨,
  • 54', Eder Militao 🟨,
  • 63', Mastantuono F. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 63', Rodrygo ↓, Vinicius Junior ↑,
  • 66', O'Riley M. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
  • 66', Kondogbia G. ↓, Vermeeren A. ↑,
  • 72', Carvajal D. 🟥,
  • 74', Guler A. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
  • 75', Medina F. 🟨,
  • 78', Emerson ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
  • 78', Weah T. ↓, Gouiri A. ↑,
  • 81', 2 - 1, Mbappe K. (Pen),
  • 87', Pavard B. ↓, Egan-Riley C. ↑,
  • 90+7', Carreras A. 🟨,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
68.3%		Draw
18.8%		Olympique Marseille
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
70.8% 17.3% 12%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
    •

    Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.41 ↑
    (1.36)    		 5.07 ↓
    (5.57)    		 7.44 ↓
    (8.04)    		 4.4%
    (3.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    •
    What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille?
  • Users Predictions: 71 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 61 - 85.9%). Marseille will win (votes: 5 - 7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 77.8% – 94%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%).
    • AH -1.5 - Real (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Real has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Marseille's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Real is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Endrick (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Head Injury) Blanco R. (Inactive) Lirola P. (Inactive) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury)
    • We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
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    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    12.09.2025 Olympique Marseille - Lorient 4:0 ✺
    31.08.2025 Lyon - Olympique Marseille 1:0 ✺
    23.08.2025 Olympique Marseille - Paris FC 5:2 ✺
    15.08.2025 Rennes - Olympique Marseille 1:0 ✺
    09.08.2025 Olympique Marseille - Aston Villa 3:1
    UEFA Champions League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG11004:043
    2Royale Union SG11003:123
    3Bayern Munich11003:123
    4Arsenal11002:023
    5Inter11002:023
    6Qarabag11003:213
    7Liverpool11003:213
    8Real Madrid11002:113
    9Tottenham11001:013
    10Dortmund10104:401
    11Juventus10104:401
    12Bodo/Glimt10102:201
    13Slavia Prague10102:201
    14Pafos10100:001
    15Olympiacos Piraeus10100:001
    16Manchester City00000:000
    17Newcastle00000:000
    18Monaco00000:000
    19Napoli00000:000
    20Club Brugge KV00000:000
    21Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    22Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    23Barcelona00000:000
    24FC Copenhagen00000:000
    25Sporting CP00000:000
    26Galatasaray00000:000
    27Kairat Almaty00000:000
    28Atl. Madrid10012:3-10
    29Benfica10012:3-10
    30Marseille10011:2-10
    31Villarreal10010:1-10
    32Chelsea10011:3-20
    33PSV10011:3-20
    34Ajax10010:2-20
    35Ath Bilbao10010:2-20
    36Atalanta10010:4-40

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