Result
1:2
02/05/2026 at 17:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 9
- Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | HBO Max, TNT Sports |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Spain | Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2 |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | TyC Sports Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 2.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (385/463) | 77% (264/345) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 2.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 25 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (385/463) | 77% (264/345) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (20/50) | 45% (27/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (74/107) | 76% (69/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 39% (11/28) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (11/19) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.55 | 1.99 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.45 | 0.99 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 8', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
- 16', 0 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
- 20', Cuello A. 🟨,
- 39', Insaurralde M. 🟨,
- 41', Lomonaco K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Gulli F. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
- 46', De Ritis M. ↓, Rattalino J. ↑,
- 54', 0 - 2, Gutierrez M. ⚽, Abaldo M. (A),
- 65', Marcone I. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
- 65', Montiel S. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 2, Herrera E. ⚽,
- 80', Reali M. ↓, Ladstatter A. ↑,
- 80', Gutierrez M. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
- 80', Lomonaco K. ↓, Freire N. ↑,
- 81', Insaurralde M. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
- 89', Avalos G. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
- 90', Valdez S. 🟨,
- 90+3', Cuello A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
San Lorenzo
30.1% | Draw
35.4% | Independiente
34.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)The ML Model estimate for Independiente aligns with the current prediction.
San Lorenzo - Independiente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.12 ↑
(3.04) |
2.65 ↓
(2.84) |
2.73 ↑
(2.65) |
6.4%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo - Independiente?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Federation decision.
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 0.
- San Lorenzo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Independiente is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Independiente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, San Lorenzo has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in San Lorenzo: Arias N.
(Knee Injury)
Cardillo M.
(Inactive)
Cerutti E.
(Knee Injury)
Cordoba A.
(Muscle Injury)
Hernandez G.
(Knee Injury)
Herrera D.
(Knee Injury)
Perruzzi F.
(Inactive)
Vietto L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Independiente: Malcorra I.
(Inactive)
Zabala F.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 0.9:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, San Lorenzo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has San Lorenzo won against Independiente?
San Lorenzo has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente won against San Lorenzo?
Independiente has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between San Lorenzo - Independiente were as follows:
21.09.2025
Independiente
-
San Lorenzo
1:1
08.03.2025
San Lorenzo
-
Independiente
1:2
03.08.2024
Independiente
-
San Lorenzo
0:0
01.04.2023
San Lorenzo
-
Independiente
0:0
Latest results of San Lorenzo
Latest results of Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
AperturaGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Union de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | 4 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Dep. Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29:15 | 14 | 34 |
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22:12 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Argentinos Jrs | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 29 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20:16 | 4 | 28 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19:19 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Huracan | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Racing Club | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:15 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Barracas Central | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15:15 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 20 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13:20 | -7 | 19 |
| 12 | Banfield | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 17:19 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Atl. Tucuman | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15:20 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6:19 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5:24 | -19 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
