Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/07/2025 at 05:55 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

City Light Stadium (Okayama).

J1 League - Round 23
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.39	1.70
Ball Possession
35%	65%
Total shots
7	17
Shots on target
3	4
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
5	13
Passes
63% (151/239)	77% (333/433)
Yellow Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.39	1.70
xG on target (xGOT)
0.18	1.39
Total shots
7	17
Shots on target
3	4
Shots off target
4	8
Blocked Shots
0	5
Shots inside the Box
2	13
Shots outside the Box
5	4
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
5	13
Touches in opposition box
8	28
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
7	12
Passes
63% (151/239)	77% (333/433)
Long passes
27% (16/59)	32% (22/68)
Passes in final third
56% (49/87)	66% (104/158)
Crosses
17% (3/18)	30% (9/30)
Expected assists (xA)
0.30	1.11
Throw-ins
24	31
Fouls
12	7
Tackles
75% (6/8)	63% (12/19)
Duels won
47	59
Clearances
38	28
Interceptions
7	5
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.39	0.18
Goals prevented
-0.40	0.18

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Germain V. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
46', Nakajima Y. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
54', Kimura T. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
54', Yanagi T. ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
55', Germain R. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
65', Esaka A. 🟨,
71', Lucao ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
71', Sasaki S. ↓, Higashi S. ↑,
82', Arai N. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
86', Esaka A. ↓, Sueyoshi R. ↑,
86', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Takeuchi R. ↑,
90+7', 0 - 1, Nakamura S. ⚽, Kinoshita K. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Fagiano Okayama
23.4%

Draw
28%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

30.3%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

31.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fagiano Okayama's form might have worsened.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sanfrecce Hiroshima's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.06 ↑ (2.82)	3.34 ↑ (3.14)	1.93 ↓ (2.63)	6.6% (5.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hiroshima: 59.8% – 94.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 5).
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Okayama may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Hiroshima is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Knee Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Okayama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Sanfrecce Hiroshima won against Fagiano Okayama?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima were as follows:

12.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama 0:1

Latest results of Fagiano Okayama

21.06.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Fagiano Okayama 0:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Avispa Fukuoka 0:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Giravanz Kitakyushu 0:2 ✺

01.06.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Fagiano Okayama 1:1 ✺

25.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima

02.07.2025 Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0 ✺

22.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:4 ✺

14.06.2025 Kashima Antlers - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Brew Saga 3:1 ✺

08.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka 2:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	27	15	6	6	47:30	17	51
2	Kashima Antlers	27	16	3	8	40:26	14	51
3	Machida	28	15	5	8	42:26	16	50
4	Kashiwa Reysol	27	14	8	5	40:27	13	50
5	Vissel Kobe	28	15	5	8	36:26	10	50
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	28	15	4	9	33:19	14	49
7	Urawa Reds	27	12	8	7	38:30	8	44
8	Kawasaki Frontale	27	11	9	7	45:35	10	42
9	Okayama	27	11	6	10	26:23	3	39
10	Cerezo Osaka	27	10	8	9	41:38	3	38
11	Avispa Fukuoka	27	9	10	8	27:26	1	37
12	Gamba Osaka	28	11	4	13	33:40	-7	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	27	8	8	11	30:35	-5	32
14	Verdy	27	8	7	12	16:28	-12	31
15	FC Tokyo	27	8	6	13	29:41	-12	30
16	Nagoya Grampus	27	7	7	13	33:41	-8	28
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	27	6	7	14	26:34	-8	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	27	6	7	14	22:42	-20	25
19	Yokohama FC	27	6	4	17	18:35	-17	22
20	Albirex Niigata	27	4	8	15	27:47	-20	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League