Result
2:1 penalties
14/03/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.49 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (351/468) | 67% (189/281) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 1.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 50 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (351/468) | 67% (189/281) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (26/76) | 42% (26/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (151/230) | 52% (40/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (8/31) | 39% (7/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 0.92 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (12/22) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 64 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.82 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 38', Park Seung-Wook ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Ogura K. ↑,
- 51', Ogura K. 🟨,
- 58', 1 - 0, Oh Se-Hun ⚽, Uno Z. (A),
- 61', Kawano K. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
- 64', Honda Y. ↓, Takagi S. ↑,
- 64', Kozuka K. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
- 69', Esaka A. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
- 69', Yamane T. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
- 74', Capixaba ↓, Matsuzaki K. ↑,
- 75', Uno Z. ↓, Yumiba M. ↑,
- 75', Lucao ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Werik Popo ⚽, Ichimi K. (A),
- Penalties (4 - 2)
- 1, Ichimi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Oh Se-Hun (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Werik Popo (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Kitagawa K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Kimura T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Matsumoto M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Chiba K. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Shimizu S-Pulse
37.3% | Draw
29.5% | Fagiano Okayama
33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↑
(2.28) |
3.16 ↓
(3.43) |
2.84 ↓
(3.05) |
6.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama?
Users Predictions:
Shimizu S-Pulse will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Shimizu S-Pulse will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 3.
- Recent form of Shimizu has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Okayama's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Shimizu: Takahashi Y.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I.
(Injury)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Shimizu S-Pulse won against Fagiano Okayama?
Shimizu S-Pulse has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Shimizu S-Pulse?
Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
06.12.2025
Shimizu S-Pulse
-
Fagiano Okayama
1:2
02.03.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Shimizu S-Pulse
1:1
30.06.2024
Shimizu S-Pulse
-
Fagiano Okayama
3:1
28.04.2024
Fagiano Okayama
-
Shimizu S-Pulse
0:1
29.07.2023
Shimizu S-Pulse
-
Fagiano Okayama
1:0
Latest results of Shimizu S-Pulse
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:7 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19:10 | 23 |
| 3 | Machida | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:16 | 22 |
| 4 | Verdy | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 7 | Mito | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15:14 | 11 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:18 | 9 |
| 10 | Chiba | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Kyoto | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17:12 | 17 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 8 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | 12 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:17 | 11 |
| 10 | Okayama | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:20 | 11 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
