Result
1:1
17/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 31
- Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.32 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (279/356) | 77% (258/333) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.32 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (279/356) | 77% (258/333) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (26/65) | 50% (29/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (67/99) | 59% (51/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (8/28) | 35% (6/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.89 | 0.62 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (13/18) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.20 | 0.30 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 38', Bandinelli F. 🟨,
- 41', Nasti M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Elia S. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
- 51', Lovato M. 🟨,
- 55', Nasti M. ↓, Popov B. ↑,
- 56', Yepes G. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
- 63', Nagy A. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
- 65', Candela A. 🟨,
- 69', 1 - 0, Artistico G. ⚽, Aurelio G. (A),
- 75', Haas N. 🟨,
- 78', Valoti M. ↓, Sernicola L. ↑,
- 78', Hristov P. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
- 79', Degli Innocenti D. 🟨,
- 80', Degli Innocenti D. ↓, Fila D. ↑,
- 80', Shpendi S. ↓, Saporiti E. ↑,
- 89', Bandinelli F. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
- 90+6', 1 - 1, Saporiti E. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Spezia
36.9% | Draw
31% | Empoli
32.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Spezia - Empoli Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.53 ↑
(2.26) |
3.02 ↓
(3.23) |
2.95 ↓
(3.09) |
6.4%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Spezia - Empoli?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Empoli will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 15.1% – 58.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Empoli (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.
- In recent matches, Spezia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Empoli is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F.
(Muscle Injury)
Di Serio G.
(Inactive)
Lapadula G.
(Inactive)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Skjellerup L.
(Inactive)
Vlahovic V.
(Inactive)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Empoli: Bianchi F.
(Inactive)
Ghion A.
(Inactive)
Pellegri P.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Spezia: Mateju A.
(Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Empoli?
Spezia has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Empoli won against Spezia?
Empoli has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Spezia - Empoli were as follows:
14.09.2025
Empoli
-
Spezia
1:1
26.07.2024
Empoli
-
Spezia
2:0
11.02.2023
Empoli
-
Spezia
2:2
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
