Mainz vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
0:0
21/12/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 15
  • Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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germanyGermanyDAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
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hungaryHungaryArena 4
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indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
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malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 8
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russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaShahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 5
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 1
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turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 1
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uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 1
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
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worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.030.26
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
135
Shots on target
11
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
95
Passes
77% (310/403)69% (253/365)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.030.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.140.13
Total shots
135
Shots on target
11
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
102
Shots outside the Box
33
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
95
Touches in opposition box
2211
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
95
Passes
77% (310/403)69% (253/365)
Long passes
46% (21/46)31% (21/68)
Passes in final third
57% (72/127)40% (36/89)
Crosses
23% (5/22)7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.830.22
Throw-ins
3530
Fouls
59
Tackles
100% (8/8)56% (10/18)
Duels won
4249
Clearances
4944
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.130.14
Goals prevented
0.130.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 32', Sano K. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 58', Hountondji A. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
  • 62', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
  • 74', Oppie L. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
  • 78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 79', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 90', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
  • 90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Chances of winning


Mainz
47.4%		Draw
28.2%		St. Pauli
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.2% 27.3% 24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6% 27.6% 24.8%

Mainz - St. Pauli Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)		 2.02 ↑
(1.97)		 3.39 ↓
(3.48)		 3.88 ↑
(3.87)		 4.7%
(5.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mainz - St. Pauli?
  • Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 33 - 78.6%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 7 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 66.2% – 91%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Smith E. (Red Card)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
    • Including home match between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - St. Pauli were as follows:
    22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0
    05.10.2024 St. Pauli - Mainz 0:3
    Latest results of Mainz
    18.12.2025 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    13.12.2025 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Köln - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    02.12.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺
    29.11.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:1 ✺
    23.11.2025 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich16142063:125144
    2Dortmund1696129:151433
    3RB Leipzig1592430:191129
    4Bayer Leverkusen1692534:241029
    5Stuttgart1692529:23629
    6Hoffenheim1583429:20927
    7Eintracht Frankfurt1675433:33026
    8Freiburg1665527:27023
    9Union Berlin1664622:25-322
    10B. Monchengladbach1654722:24-219
    11FC Koln1645724:26-217
    12Werder Bremen1545618:28-1017
    13Hamburger SV1644817:27-1016
    14Wolfsburg1643924:36-1215
    15Augsburg16421017:32-1514
    16St. Pauli1533913:26-1312
    17Heidenheim16331015:36-2112
    18Mainz1616915:28-139

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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