Mainz vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
0:0
21/12/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 15
  • Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.030.26
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
135
Shots on target
11
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
95
Passes
77% (310/403)69% (253/365)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.030.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.140.13
Total shots
135
Shots on target
11
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
102
Shots outside the Box
33
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
95
Touches in opposition box
2211
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
95
Passes
77% (310/403)69% (253/365)
Long passes
46% (21/46)31% (21/68)
Passes in final third
57% (72/127)40% (36/89)
Crosses
23% (5/22)7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.830.22
Throw-ins
3530
Fouls
59
Tackles
100% (8/8)56% (10/18)
Duels won
4249
Clearances
4944
Interceptions
911
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.130.14
Goals prevented
0.130.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 32', Sano K. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 58', Hountondji A. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
  • 62', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
  • 74', Oppie L. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
  • 78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 79', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
  • 90', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
  • 90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Chances of winning


Mainz
47.4%		Draw
28.2%		St. Pauli
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
48.2% 27.3% 24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6% 27.6% 24.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • The chances for St. Pauli have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
    •

    Mainz - St. Pauli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.02 ↑
    (1.97)    		 3.39 ↓
    (3.48)    		 3.88 ↑
    (3.87)    		 4.7%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Mainz - St. Pauli?
  • Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 33 - 78.6%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 7 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 66.2% – 91%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Mainz could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Smith E. (Red Card)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).
    • Including home match between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - St. Pauli were as follows:
    22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0
    05.10.2024 St. Pauli - Mainz 0:3
    Latest results of Mainz
    18.12.2025 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    13.12.2025 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Köln - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺
    02.12.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli 1:2 ✺
    29.11.2025 Bayern Munich - St. Pauli 3:1 ✺
    23.11.2025 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich23193185:216460
    2Dortmund23157149:222752
    3Hoffenheim23144549:301946
    4Stuttgart23134644:321243
    5RB Leipzig23125644:321241
    6Bayer Leverkusen22123743:281539
    7Freiburg2396834:37-333
    8Eintracht Frankfurt2387846:49-331
    9Union Berlin2377929:37-828
    10Augsburg23841128:41-1328
    11Hamburger SV2268825:32-726
    12FC Koln23661133:39-624
    13Mainz23571126:38-1222
    14B. Monchengladbach23571126:39-1322
    15Wolfsburg23551333:49-1620
    16St. Pauli23551322:40-1820
    17Werder Bremen23471223:44-2119
    18Heidenheim23351522:51-2914

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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