Mainz vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/02/2025 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 23
Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Extra 3
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 6
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Viaplay
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.30	0.85
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Goal Attempts
9	12
Shots on Goal
5	0
Shots off Goal
1	9
Blocked Shots
3	3
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
6	5
Shots inside the Box
6	8
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
0	3
Free Kicks
10	9
Offsides
6	1
Fouls
9	10
Yellow Cards
3	3
Throw-ins
26	22
Touches in the Opposition Box
16	18
Passes
78% (329/423)	79% (296/377)
Passes in the final third
59% (87/148)	60% (58/96)
Crosses
38% (5/13)	40% (8/20)
Tackles
58% (7/12)	63% (10/16)
Clearances Total
27	34
Interceptions
8	13

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Sano K. 🟨,
24', Treu P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Weiper N. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
50', Kohr D. 🟨,
62', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
66', Van Der Heyden S. 🟨,
66', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽,
69', Saad E. ↓, Afolayan O. ↑,
73', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
83', Weisshaupt N. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
83', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
83', Treu P. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
88', Nebel P. 🟨,
90+4', Nemeth D. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Nebel P. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),

Chances of winning

Mainz
53.4%

Draw
26.8%

St. Pauli
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.8%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

29%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Mainz - St. Pauli Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.87)	3.5 ↓ (3.57)	4.68 ↑ (4.32)	5.8% (4.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Mainz - St. Pauli?

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.66% – 94.98%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 14).
One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
In this match Mainz is a favorite.
There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in St. Pauli: Ahlers S. (Knee Injury) Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Guilavogui M. (Ankle Injury) Metcalfe C. (Leg Injury) Saliakas M. (Thigh Injury) Sands J. (Broken Leg) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Mainz: Zentner R. (Illness)
There are questionable in St. Pauli: Mets K. (Knee Injury) Wagner R. (Thigh Injury)
Last 1 head-to-head matches Mainz won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against St. Pauli?

Mainz has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Mainz?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - St. Pauli were as follows:

05.10.2024 St. Pauli - Mainz 0:3

Latest results of Mainz

16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2 ✺

08.02.2025 Mainz - Augsburg 0:0 ✺

31.01.2025 Werder Bremen - Mainz 1:0 ✺

25.01.2025 Mainz - Stuttgart 2:0 ✺

19.01.2025 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:1 ✺

Latest results of St. Pauli

15.02.2025 St. Pauli - Freiburg 0:1 ✺

09.02.2025 RB Leipzig - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺

01.02.2025 St. Pauli - Augsburg 1:1 ✺

26.01.2025 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 3:0 ✺

18.01.2025 Heidenheim - St. Pauli 0:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Bayern Munich	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	B. Monchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	FC Koln	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	St. Pauli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga