Result
25/04/2026 at 21:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 17
Chances of winning
Toluca
61.4% | Draw
20.7% | Club León
18% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.Club León has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Club León's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club León than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Club León, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Toluca - Club León Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.52 ↑
(1.34) |
4.56 ↓
(5.2) |
5.13 ↓
(7.3) |
7.4%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).
- Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 2.
- Toluca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- León is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Pereira F.
(Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in León: Estrada A.
(Broken Leg)
- There are questionable in León: Vegas S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 37:38. (average 1.9:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:12. (average 1.9:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Club León?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Club León won against Toluca?
Club León has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Club León were as follows:
04.10.2025
Club León
-
Toluca
2:4
08.02.2025
Club León
-
Toluca
3:3
02.11.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
2:2
03.02.2024
Toluca
-
Club León
4:1
21.10.2023
Club León
-
Toluca
1:0
Latest results of Club León
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 35 |
| 2 | UNAM Pumas ✔ | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32:17 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Pachuca ✔ | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 31 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27:17 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | Toluca ✔ | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 27 |
| 6 | Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20:16 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Atlas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 23 |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23:17 | 6 | 22 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 22 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 21:28 | -7 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22:21 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Atl. San Luis | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23:25 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18:21 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Juarez | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 24:31 | -7 | 16 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21:32 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
UNAM Pumas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Pachuca is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
