Tacoma Defiance vs Ventura County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

01/08/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Starfire Sports (Tukwila, WA).

MLS Next Pro
Where to Watch on TV:


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Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.04	2.77
Ball Possession
42%	58%
Total shots
14	14
Shots on target
8	10
Big Chances
4	5
Corner Kicks
6	5
Passes
82% (328/398)	88% (510/577)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04	2.77
xG on target (xGOT)
2.95	4.80
Total shots
14	14
Shots on target
8	10
Shots off target
3	3
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
10	11
Shots outside the Box
4	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
4	5
Corner Kicks
6	5
Touches in opposition box
30	29
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	13
Passes
82% (328/398)	88% (510/577)
Long passes
45% (25/55)	61% (51/84)
Passes in final third
71% (91/128)	66% (73/110)
Crosses
39% (7/18)	44% (4/9)
Expected assists (xA)
2.30	1.47
Throw-ins
7	14
Fouls
13	13
Tackles
61% (11/18)	69% (11/16)
Duels won
34	39
Clearances
18	27
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	4
xGOT faced
4.80	2.95
Goals prevented
-1.20	-1.05

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 4)
2', 0 - 1, Kocevski J. ⚽, Sullivan N. (A), Vivi Quesada G. (A2)
6', 1 - 1, Gomez S. ⚽, Burney L. (A),
19', 1 - 2, Vivi Quesada G. ⚽, Kocevski J. (A),
23', Arnold G. 🟨,
33', 1 - 3, Miller H. ⚽, Vanney D. (A),
45+1', 1 - 4, Kocevski J. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Khoury J. ↓, Hassan O. ↑,
46', Burney L. 🟨,
56', 1 - 5, Kocevski J. ⚽,
59', Tsukanome Y. ↓, Robles D. ↑,
60', Burney L. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
64', 2 - 5, Gomez S. ⚽, Yamada K. (A),
68', Miller H. ↓, Bucknor J. ↑,
68', Vivi Quesada G. ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
75', Gaffney C. ↓, Pedder R. ↑,
76', Arnold G. ↓, Tsakiris M. ↑,
76', Sousa T. ↓, Diaw B. ↑,
81', Kocevski J. ↓, Middleby M. ↑,
81', Sullivan N. ↓, Saribekyan L. ↑,
85', Alvarez D. 🟨,
87', 3 - 5, Gomez S. ⚽,
87', Hassan O. 🟨,
88', 3 - 6, Musto T. ⚽,
90', 4 - 6, Yamada K. ⚽,
90+1', Saribekyan L. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Tacoma Defiance
35.3%

Draw
22.9%

Ventura County
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

23%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

21.9%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tacoma Defiance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Ventura County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tacoma Defiance than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ventura County than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.3)	3.98 ↑ (3.96)	2.19 ↓ (2.44)	9.4% (9.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

What is the prediction for Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tacoma (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH 0 - Tacoma (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tacoma (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 3.
In recent matches, Tacoma has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ventura County is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Ventura County may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tacoma won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 2.5:2.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Tacoma won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 3.5:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Tacoma Defiance won against Ventura County?

Tacoma Defiance has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ventura County won against Tacoma Defiance?

Ventura County has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County were as follows:

02.05.2025 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 1:2

07.03.2025 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 3:2

20.10.2024 Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County 4:0

18.08.2024 Tacoma Defiance - Ventura County 3:2

31.05.2024 Ventura County - Tacoma Defiance 3:2

Latest results of Tacoma Defiance

27.07.2025 Tacoma Defiance - Portland Timbers 2 1:2 ✺

20.07.2025 Colorado Rapids 2 - Tacoma Defiance 6:4 ✺

17.07.2025 Tacoma Defiance - Real Monarchs 2:3 ✺

03.07.2025 Tacoma Defiance - The Town 5:4 ✺

29.06.2025 Los Angeles 2 - Tacoma Defiance 2:3 ✺

Latest results of Ventura County

20.07.2025 Ventura County - Los Angeles 2 3:4 ✺

16.07.2025 St. Louis City 2 - Ventura County 2:1 ✺

03.07.2025 Ventura County - Vancouver Whitecaps 2 1:2 ✺

29.06.2025 The Town - Ventura County 2:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Minnesota United 2 - Ventura County 0:2 ✺

MLS Next Pro Table

2026

Northeast Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	New England Revolution II	4	2	2	0	0	5:2	10
2	New York Red Bulls II	4	2	0	2	0	9:4	8
3	Columbus Crew 2	4	2	1	0	1	7:6	8
4	Philadelphia Union II	4	2	1	0	1	4:3	8
5	Connecticut FC	4	2	0	0	2	7:8	6
6	Toronto FC II	4	1	0	1	2	7:4	4
7	New York City II	3	0	1	1	1	1:6	3
8	Cincinnati 2	4	0	0	0	4	2:8	0

Southeast Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Crown Legacy	4	4	0	0	0	17:3	12
2	Orlando City B	4	2	1	0	1	10:10	8
3	Atlanta United 2	4	2	0	1	1	7:6	7
4	Chicago Fire II	4	1	2	0	1	4:4	7
5	Huntsville	4	1	1	0	2	8:14	5
6	Chattanooga	4	1	0	1	2	8:10	4
7	Inter Miami II	4	0	0	2	2	5:11	2
8	Carolina Core	3	0	0	1	2	3:5	1

Pacific Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Real Monarchs	4	2	2	0	0	12:6	10
2	San Jose Earthquakes II	4	2	0	1	1	9:4	7
3	Ventura County	4	1	2	0	1	8:7	7
4	Portland Timbers 2	4	1	1	1	1	2:6	6
5	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	4	1	0	1	2	6:8	4
6	Los Angeles FC 2	4	0	1	2	1	7:10	4
7	Tacoma Defiance	4	0	1	1	2	2:7	3

Frontier Division

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Houston Dynamo 2	4	4	0	0	0	13:0	12
2	St. Louis City 2	4	3	1	0	0	12:4	11
3	Austin FC II	4	2	0	1	1	6:6	7
4	Minnesota 2	4	2	0	0	2	6:7	6
5	North Texas	4	1	0	1	2	5:6	4
6	Sporting Kansas City II	4	0	1	0	3	2:12	2
7	Colorado Rapids 2	4	0	0	1	3	4:11	1

Eastern Conference

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Crown Legacy	4	4	0	0	0	17:3	12
2	New England Revolution II	4	2	2	0	0	5:2	10
3	New York Red Bulls II	4	2	0	2	0	9:4	8
4	Columbus Crew 2	4	2	1	0	1	7:6	8
5	Philadelphia Union II	4	2	1	0	1	4:3	8
6	Orlando City B	4	2	1	0	1	10:10	8
7	Atlanta United 2	4	2	0	1	1	7:6	7
8	Chicago Fire II	4	1	2	0	1	4:4	7
9	Connecticut FC	4	2	0	0	2	7:8	6
10	Huntsville	4	1	1	0	2	8:14	5
11	Toronto FC II	4	1	0	1	2	7:4	4
12	Chattanooga	4	1	0	1	2	8:10	4
13	New York City II	3	0	1	1	1	1:6	3
14	Inter Miami II	4	0	0	2	2	5:11	2
15	Carolina Core	3	0	0	1	2	3:5	1
16	Cincinnati 2	4	0	0	0	4	2:8	0

Western Conference

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Houston Dynamo 2	4	4	0	0	0	13:0	12
2	St. Louis City 2	4	3	1	0	0	12:4	11
3	Real Monarchs	4	2	2	0	0	12:6	10
4	San Jose Earthquakes II	4	2	0	1	1	9:4	7
5	Austin FC II	4	2	0	1	1	6:6	7
6	Ventura County	4	1	2	0	1	8:7	7
7	Minnesota 2	4	2	0	0	2	6:7	6
8	Portland Timbers 2	4	1	1	1	1	2:6	6
9	North Texas	4	1	0	1	2	5:6	4
10	Vancouver Whitecaps 2	4	1	0	1	2	6:8	4
11	Los Angeles FC 2	4	0	1	2	1	7:10	4
12	Tacoma Defiance	4	0	1	1	2	2:7	3
13	Sporting Kansas City II	4	0	1	0	3	2:12	2
14	Colorado Rapids 2	4	0	0	1	3	4:11	1

Promotion ~ MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)