Result
1:0
02/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 15
- Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
Peru | Zapping Sports |
Turkey | S Sport+ |
Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.53 | 2.04 |
Ball Possession |
---|
46% | 54% |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 13 |
Shots on target |
---|
1 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
0 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
83% (296/357) | 86% (351/408) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
2 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.53 | 2.04 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.92 | 0.69 |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 13 |
Shots on target |
---|
1 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
5 | 7 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
7 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
6 | 9 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
0 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
13 | 24 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 2 |
Offsides |
---|
3 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
9 | 10 |
Passes |
---|
83% (296/357) | 86% (351/408) |
Long passes |
---|
48% (33/69) | 67% (29/43) |
Passes in final third |
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54% (38/71) | 77% (96/124) |
Crosses |
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30% (3/10) | 28% (7/25) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.61 | 0.98 |
Throw-ins |
---|
18 | 15 |
Fouls |
---|
10 | 9 |
Tackles |
---|
45% (5/11) | 75% (15/20) |
Duels won |
---|
31 | 42 |
Clearances |
---|
23 | 13 |
Interceptions |
---|
12 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 0 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.69 | 0.92 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.69 | -0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 29', Arboleda C. (Pen),
- 45+1', Ayovi W. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Caicedo J. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
- 62', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
- 62', Quinonez A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 65', Nardelli G. 🟨,
- 70', Molina N. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
- 75', Larotonda C. 🟨,
- 80', Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
- 83', Arboleda C. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
- 84', 1 - 0, Monti R. (Pen),
- 88', Montano J. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 89', Mina A. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
- 89', Mera F. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vinotinto 48.1% | Draw 26.4% | Libertad Loja 25.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vinotinto - Libertad Loja Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.93 ↑ (1.73) |
3.49 ↓ (3.6) |
3.66 ↓ (4.5) |
7.7% (7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Libertad Loja?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 47.7% – 95.1%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- Vinotinto has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Libertad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Vinotinto is the team to beat.
- The teams have not played against each other recently.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Libertad Loja?
Vinotinto has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Vinotinto?
Libertad Loja has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - Libertad Loja were as follows:
Latest results of Vinotinto
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Ind. del Valle | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 43:19 | 24 | 49 |
2 | LDU Quito | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 40:22 | 18 | 43 |
3 | Barcelona SC | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35:26 | 9 | 41 |
4 | Orense | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 37 |
5 | Dep. Cuenca | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 35 |
6 | Aucas | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 32:33 | -1 | 35 |
7 | U. Catolica | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 44:31 | 13 | 34 |
8 | Libertad | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33:28 | 5 | 34 |
9 | Emelec | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20:26 | -6 | 28 |
10 | Delfin | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:31 | -10 | 26 |
11 | EL Nacional | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 25 |
12 | Vinotinto | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 26:30 | -4 | 23 |
13 | Macara | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 21:26 | -5 | 23 |
14 | Manta | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 30:41 | -11 | 23 |
15 | Tecnico U | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
16 | Mushuc Runa | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 25:41 | -16 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )