Result
1:0
28/09/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 30
- Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 0.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (272/353) | 77% (259/338) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 0.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (272/353) | 77% (259/338) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (34/66) | 43% (28/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (100/138) | 54% (64/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (9/36) | 12% (3/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (7/7) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.23 | 0.82 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.23 | -0.18 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45+9', Lugo J. 🟨,
- 45+10', Caicedo E. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', 1 - 0, Caicedo N. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
- 54', Mera F. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
- 54', Ushina K. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
- 54', Luna D. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
- 66', Monti R. 🟨,
- 66', Arboleda C. ↓, Quinonez A. ↑,
- 66', Caicedo E. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
- 72', Mina A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
- 75', Caicedo N. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
- 75', Ayovi W. ↓, Humanante J. ↑,
- 82', Mina F. 🟨,
- 85', Coba K. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 87', Zambrano I. 🟨,
- 90', Garcia A. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Libertad Loja
48.8% | Draw
25.5% | Vinotinto
25.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Loja's form might have worsened.Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vinotinto's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+10.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Loja, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (-8.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vinotinto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Libertad Loja - Vinotinto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.92 ↑
(1.62) |
3.64 ↑
(3.6) |
3.64 ↓
(5) |
7%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Libertad Loja - Vinotinto?
Users Predictions:
Libertad Loja will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).
- Libertad has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Vinotinto has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Libertad will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Libertad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Vinotinto?
Libertad Loja has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Libertad Loja?
Vinotinto has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Loja - Vinotinto were as follows:
02.06.2025
Vinotinto
-
Libertad Loja
1:0
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Latest results of Vinotinto
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
Placement Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 36:32 | 4 | 46 |
| 8 | Emelec | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 33:35 | -2 | 45 |
| 9 | Macara | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 35:32 | 3 | 41 |
| 10 | Aucas | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 40:44 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 34:48 | -14 | 35 |
| 12 | Delfin | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 28:44 | -16 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )
