Result
1:0
02/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 15
- Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
 Turkey | S Sport+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 2.04 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (296/357) | 86% (351/408) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 2.04 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.69 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (296/357) | 86% (351/408) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (33/69) | 67% (29/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (38/71) | 77% (96/124) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 28% (7/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.98 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 75% (15/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 31 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.69 | -0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 29', Arboleda C. (Pen),
- 45+1', Ayovi W. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Caicedo J. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
- 62', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
- 62', Quinonez A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 65', Nardelli G. 🟨,
- 70', Molina N. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
- 75', Larotonda C. 🟨,
- 80', Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
- 83', Arboleda C. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
- 84', 1 - 0, Monti R. (Pen),
- 88', Montano J. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
- 89', Mina A. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
- 89', Mera F. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vinotinto
48.1% | Draw
26.4% | Libertad Loja
25.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vinotinto - Libertad Loja Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.93 ↑
(1.73) |
3.49 ↓
(3.6) |
3.66 ↓
(4.5) |
7.7%
(7.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Libertad Loja?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 47.7% – 95.1%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- Vinotinto has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Libertad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Vinotinto is the team to beat.
- The teams have not played against each other recently.
How many head-to-head matches has Vinotinto won against Libertad Loja?
Vinotinto has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Vinotinto?
Libertad Loja has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vinotinto - Libertad Loja were as follows:
Latest results of Vinotinto
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle ✔ | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 53:21 | 32 | 62 |
| 2 | Barcelona SC ✔ | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 44:32 | 12 | 50 |
| 3 | LDU Quito | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 43:26 | 17 | 48 |
| 4 | Dep. Cuenca | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 34:26 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Orense | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 34:32 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | U. Catolica | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 52:36 | 16 | 43 |
| 7 | Libertad | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 40:35 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | Aucas | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36:39 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Emelec | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 26:34 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | Macara | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 28:28 | 0 | 34 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 32:37 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 | Delfin | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 | Manta | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 25 |
| 14 | Tecnico U | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24:43 | -19 | 25 |
| 15 | Vinotinto | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30:41 | -11 | 24 |
| 16 | Mushuc Runa ✔ | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 31:48 | -17 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Ind. del Valle is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Barcelona SC is Qualified for Liga Pro (Championship Group )
Mushuc Runa is Liga Pro (Relegation Group )
