Vinotinto vs Libertad Loja – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Ecuadorian Liga Pro Vinotinto - Libertad Loja
Result
1:0
02/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Pro - Round 15
  • Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
peruPeruZapping Sports
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
usaUsaParamount+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.532.04
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
13
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
05
Passes
83% (296/357)86% (351/408)
Yellow Cards
20
Expected Goals (xG)
1.532.04
xG on target (xGOT)
0.920.69
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
13
Shots off target
57
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
69
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
05
Touches in opposition box
1324
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
910
Passes
83% (296/357)86% (351/408)
Long passes
48% (33/69)67% (29/43)
Passes in final third
54% (38/71)77% (96/124)
Crosses
30% (3/10)28% (7/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.610.98
Throw-ins
1815
Fouls
109
Tackles
45% (5/11)75% (15/20)
Duels won
3142
Clearances
2313
Interceptions
125
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
30
xGOT faced
0.690.92
Goals prevented
0.69-0.08

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 29', Arboleda C. (Pen),
  • 45+1', Ayovi W. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Caicedo J. , Mera F. ,
  • 62', Ayovi W. , Caicedo N. ,
  • 62', Quinonez A. , Caicedo E. ,
  • 65', Nardelli G. 🟨,
  • 70', Molina N. , Luna D. ,
  • 75', Larotonda C. 🟨,
  • 80', Carrasco Bonilla M. A. , Gomez L. ,
  • 83', Arboleda C. , Monaga J. ,
  • 84', 1 - 0, Monti R. (Pen),
  • 88', Montano J. , Verges J. ,
  • 89', Mina A. , Ushina K. ,
  • 89', Mera F. , Hernandez E. ,

Chances of winning


Vinotinto
48.1%
Draw
26.4%
Libertad Loja
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.6% 25.8% 20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7% 25.3% 20.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.
  • Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Vinotinto - Libertad Loja Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.93
    (1.73)
    3.49
    (3.6)
    3.66
    (4.5)
    7.7%
    (7.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Vinotinto - Libertad Loja?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 47.7%95.1%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
    • Vinotinto has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Libertad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Vinotinto is the team to beat.
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Vinotinto
    Latest results of Libertad Loja
    Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. del Valle23147243:192449
    2LDU Quito23127440:221843
    3Barcelona SC23125635:26941
    4Orense23114825:26-137
    5Dep. Cuenca23105827:24335
    6Aucas23105832:33-135
    7U. Catolica2397744:311334
    8Libertad2297633:28534
    9Emelec2277820:26-628
    10Delfin2268821:31-1026
    11EL Nacional23671026:33-725
    12Vinotinto22651126:30-423
    13Macara23581021:26-523
    14Manta23581030:41-1123
    15Tecnico U23571123:34-1122
    16Mushuc Runa23451425:41-1617

          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
          Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
          Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )