Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/10/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer).

Eerste Divisie - Round 12
Referee: Gerrets L. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.52	0.47
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
7	6
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
4	5
Passes
85% (411/486)	86% (378/442)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52	0.47
xG on target (xGOT)
2.81	0.88
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
7	6
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked Shots
3	3
Shots inside the Box
12	5
Shots outside the Box
3	7
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
2	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
4	5
Touches in opposition box
29	13
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
8	10
Passes
85% (411/486)	86% (378/442)
Long passes
58% (45/77)	58% (36/62)
Passes in final third
71% (90/127)	68% (64/94)
Crosses
33% (3/9)	26% (6/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.99	0.50
Throw-ins
15	19
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
79% (11/14)	80% (8/10)
Duels won
44	41
Clearances
18	15
Interceptions
10	13
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	3
xGOT faced
0.88	2.81
Goals prevented
0.88	-1.19

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Boogaard K. ⚽, Kwakman D. (A),
34', 2 - 0, van Duijn S. ⚽, Toppenberg K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Doodeman N. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
46', Zeefuik L. ↓, van den Ban Y. ↑,
46', Culum A. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
50', Toppenberg K. 🟨,
63', Kwakman D. ↓, Smits A. ↑,
64', El Allouchi M. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
67', 3 - 0, Toppenberg K. ⚽, Smits A. (A),
74', Zwart J. 🟨,
74', Stam F. ↓, Mathijsen J. ↑,
74', Toppenberg K. ↓, van der Klaauw D. ↑,
78', Zwart J. ↓, Hamdi Y. ↑,
87', 4 - 0, van Duijn S. ⚽, Boogaard K. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Jong AZ Alkmaar
33.2%

Draw
24.8%

Willem II
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

24.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

24.3%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Willem II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.44)	3.82 ↑ (3.7)	2.27 ↓ (2.44)	6% (9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Willem II will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Willem II: 53.9% – 93.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Willem II (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Willem II (1.42) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Willem II (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).
Jong AZ is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Willem II is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Jong AZ: Inge K. (Injury)
There are questionable in Willem II: Schuurman J. (Knock)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Jong AZ Alkmaar won against Willem II?

Jong AZ Alkmaar has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Willem II won against Jong AZ Alkmaar?

Willem II has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II were as follows:

12.04.2024 Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar 4:1

29.09.2023 Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II 0:2

06.03.2023 Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II 2:2

16.09.2022 Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar 1:0

Latest results of Jong AZ Alkmaar

17.10.2025 Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar 4:2 ✺

03.10.2025 Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag 0:4 ✺

30.09.2025 Jong Utrecht - Jong AZ Alkmaar 0:0 ✺

26.09.2025 Den Bosch - Jong AZ Alkmaar 2:3 ✺

22.09.2025 Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap 1:3 ✺

Latest results of Willem II

17.10.2025 Waalwijk - Willem II 2:3 ✺

03.10.2025 Willem II - Roda 1:2 ✺

30.09.2025 Willem II - Helmond Sport 1:0 ✺

27.09.2025 Vitesse - Willem II 1:2 ✺

19.09.2025 Willem II - Jong Ajax 1:0 ✺

Dutch Eerste Divisie Table

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Den Haag	29	22	2	5	70:30	40	68
2	Cambuur	28	19	6	3	60:32	28	63
3	De Graafschap	29	14	7	8	55:44	11	49
4	Jong PSV	29	14	5	10	59:53	6	47
5	Roda	29	12	10	7	49:43	6	46
6	Willem II	29	13	7	9	41:36	5	46
7	Almere City	29	13	3	13	60:50	10	42
8	Waalwijk	29	11	8	10	47:44	3	41
9	Dordrecht	29	11	8	10	39:38	1	41
10	Den Bosch	29	11	6	12	51:53	-2	39
11	Venlo	29	11	4	14	38:43	-5	37
12	Eindhoven FC	29	10	4	15	41:53	-12	34
13	FC Emmen	28	9	6	13	43:51	-8	33
14	Jong Utrecht	29	8	9	12	47:52	-5	33
15	Helmond	29	9	5	15	36:53	-17	32
16	Maastricht	29	8	7	14	35:58	-23	31
17	Jong AZ	29	9	3	17	49:57	-8	30
18	Vitesse	29	10	9	10	43:45	-2	27
19	Oss	29	6	9	14	35:50	-15	27
20	Jong Ajax	29	6	8	15	40:53	-13	26

Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )