Result
3:1
04/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 11
- Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.08 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (243/328) | 75% (249/331) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 0.71 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (243/328) | 75% (249/331) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (15/46) | 52% (27/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (88/120) | 58% (57/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (7/22) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.49 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 46 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.71 | 2.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.29 | 0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 13', 1 - 0, Rocha L. (Own goal),
- 30', 2 - 0, Kingue S. ⚽, Maurides (A),
- 33', Regula M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Dabrowski D. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,
- 46', Corluka J. ↓, Michalski D. ↑,
- 53', 3 - 0, Grzesik J. ⚽, Balde E. (A),
- 54', Radwanski A. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
- 56', Nalepa M. 🟨,
- 62', Michalski D. 🟨,
- 68', Szmyt K. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
- 69', 3 - 1, Rocha L. ⚽, Kocaba F. (A),
- 69', Balde E. ↓, Capita ↑,
- 76', Baro R. ↓, Donis C. ↑,
- 76', Regula M. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
- 77', Wolski R. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
- 85', Cichocki M. 🟨,
- 89', Tapsoba A. ↓, Lopes V. ↑,
- 89', Camara I. ↓, Kaput M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Radomiak Radom
52.4% | Draw
26.6% | Zagłębie Lubin
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Radomiak Radom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Radomiak Radom's performance.Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zagłębie Lubin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Radomiak Radom that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zagłębie Lubin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.09 ↓
(2.17) |
4.32 ↑
(3.5) |
5.67 ↑
(3.1) |
-11.3%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Radomiak will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 16.1% – 74.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 1.
- Radomiak is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Zagłębie Lubin is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Radomiak could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Radomiak: Dieguez A.
(Yellow Cards)
Wilson-Esbrand J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M.
(Broken Leg)
- There are questionable in Zagłębie Lubin: Popielec C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Radomiak won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Radomiak won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.8:2.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Radomiak Radom won against Zagłębie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Radomiak Radom?
Zagłębie Lubin has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin were as follows:
25.09.2025
Radomiak Radom
-
Zagłębie Lubin
0:2
05.04.2025
Radomiak Radom
-
Zagłębie Lubin
0:1
29.09.2024
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Radomiak Radom
1:0
28.04.2024
Radomiak Radom
-
Zagłębie Lubin
3:4
29.10.2023
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Radomiak Radom
2:3
Latest results of Radomiak Radom
Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:13 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19:10 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Cracovia | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20:12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16:11 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12:7 | 5 | 18 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:16 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Widzew Lodz | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Legia | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:9 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 22:22 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Rakow | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12:15 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Zaglebie | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21:16 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Arka Gdynia | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7:19 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16:24 | -8 | 11 |
| 15 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13:21 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Termalica B-B | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15:21 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
