Result
2:1
17/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.61 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (273/362) | 76% (228/301) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.43 | 1.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 39 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (273/362) | 76% (228/301) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (17/55) | 47% (27/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (69/112) | 56% (36/64) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (5/13) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.47 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 33% (6/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.62 | 1.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | -0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 19', 1 - 0, Murilo de Souza ⚽,
- 22', 1 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽, Leo Santos (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 57', 2 - 1, Garcia S. ⚽,
- 59', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
- 64', Labidi C. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
- 64', Paulinho Boia ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
- 70', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 71', Ze Carlos ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
- 72', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
- 74', Matheus Dias ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 75', Aurelio J. ↓, Nunez A. ↑,
- 76', Varela G. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
- 81', Liziero ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 85', Esteves L. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gil Vicente
53.6% | Draw
27.2% | Nacional
19.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)The ML Model estimate for Gil Vicente aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Gil Vicente - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↓
(1.77) |
3.47 ↑
(3.35) |
4.87 ↑
(4.73) |
6.1%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gil Vicente - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 51.5% – 92.9%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Gil Vicente will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 5.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Moreira A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Buatu J.
(Inactive)
Caseres F.
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:16. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Nacional?
Gil Vicente has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Gil Vicente?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gil Vicente - Nacional were as follows:
09.08.2025
Nacional
-
Gil Vicente
0:2
19.04.2025
Nacional
-
Gil Vicente
0:3
07.12.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Nacional
2:1
27.11.2022
Gil Vicente
-
Nacional
2:0
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
