Result
2:1
27/04/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 31
- Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Croatia | SportKlub 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 1.24 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (317/393) | 73% (238/326) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.70 | 1.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 0.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (317/393) | 73% (238/326) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (36/65) | 42% (28/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (65/102) | 58% (56/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 0.60 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.86 | 2.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.14 | 0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 26', Brito R. 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 0, Murilo de Souza ⚽,
- 40', Mandic I. 🟨,
- 45+4', Ze Carlos 🟨,
- 45+7', 1 - 1, Cassiano (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 61', Fernandez M. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
- 61', Hernandez H. ↓, Varela G. ↑,
- 63', Ze Carlos 🟨,
- 70', Rosas P. 🟨,
- 73', 2 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
- 74', Rosas P. ↓, Conte A. ↑,
- 74', Marques J. ↓, Livramento D. ↑,
- 78', Geraldes A. 🟨,
- 82', Mutombo J. ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
- 85', Mohamed I. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
- 86', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 86', Livolant J. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
- 87', Murilo de Souza ↓, Bermejo ↑,
- 88', Ze Carlos ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
- 89', Figueira Daniel 🟨,
- 90+3', Varela G. 🟨,
- 90+4', Espigares A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Gil Vicente
55.6% | Draw
26% | Casa Pia
18.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gil Vicente's form might have worsened.Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Gil Vicente - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↑
(1.55) |
3.65 ↓
(4.01) |
5.14 ↓
(6.17) |
5.7%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gil Vicente - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
Gil Vicente will win
(16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 1.
- Recent performances by Gil Vicente have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Casa Pia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Gil Vicente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Injury)
Elimbi M.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Injury)
Fonte J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A.
(Inactive)
Severina X.
(Inactive)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.1:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Casa Pia?
Gil Vicente has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Gil Vicente?
Casa Pia has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gil Vicente - Casa Pia were as follows:
13.12.2025
Casa Pia
-
Gil Vicente
1:1
22.02.2025
Casa Pia
-
Gil Vicente
1:0
22.09.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Casa Pia
1:1
03.03.2024
Casa Pia
-
Gil Vicente
0:0
02.10.2023
Gil Vicente
-
Casa Pia
2:0
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
