Result
0:1
23/04/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 26
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 31% | 69% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (221/312) | 88% (639/730) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (221/312) | 88% (639/730) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (21/65) | 33% (16/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (47/89) | 69% (102/148) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/14) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.55 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.42 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 18', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 37', 0 - 1, Victor P. ⚽, Tiknaz D. E. (A),
- 45', Victor P. 🟨,
- 45', Geraldes A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Mendes C. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 47', Moutinho J. 🟨,
- 61', Livramento D. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
- 62', Hornicek L. 🟨,
- 62', Victor P. ↓, Zalazar R. ↑,
- 63', Martinez G. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
- 71', Mohamed I. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
- 71', Ofori L. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
- 71', Moutinho J. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
17.2% | Draw
24.3% | Braga
58.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Braga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+8.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Braga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Casa Pia - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.52 ↓
(7.4) |
3.89 ↓
(4.25) |
1.62 ↑
(1.43) |
5.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Braga?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Braga will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 53.8% – 96.2%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2.
- Recent form of Casa Pia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Braga is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Braga is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Braga: Barisic A.
(Muscle Injury)
Niakate S.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Rodrigues D.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Conte A.
(Inactive)
Fonte J.
(Inactive)
Severina X.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Braga: Arrey-Mbi B.
(Injury)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.1:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Braga?
Casa Pia has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Casa Pia?
Braga has won 5 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Braga were as follows:
26.10.2025
Braga
-
Casa Pia
4:0
10.05.2025
Casa Pia
-
Braga
2:1
29.12.2024
Braga
-
Casa Pia
1:2
05.05.2024
Braga
-
Casa Pia
4:3
30.12.2023
Casa Pia
-
Braga
1:3
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 82:23 | 59 | 76 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
