Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
118:108
03/12/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • NBA
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaESPN
worldWorldNBA Global League Pass

Match Stats

Field Goals Attempted
91101
Field Goals Made
4640
Field Goals %
50.55%39.6%
2-Point Field G. Attempted
5964
2-Point Field Goals Made
3029
2-Point Field Goals %
50.85%45.31%
3-Point Field G. Attempted
3237
3-Point Field Goals Made
1611
3-Point Field Goals %
50%29.73%
Free Throws Attempted
1218
Free Throws Made
1017
Free Throws %
83.3%94.4%
Offensive Rebounds
1014
Defensive Rebounds
4027
Total Rebounds
5041
Assists
3129
Blocks
75
Turnovers
108
Steals
611
Personal Fouls
1513
Technical Fouls
21

Highlights

Chances of winning


Dallas Mavericks
37%
Miami Heat
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.1% 49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52% 48%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Dallas Mavericks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dallas Mavericks's form might have worsened.
  • Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miami Heat's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dallas Mavericks than the current prediction. (+15%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dallas Mavericks, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-15%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Miami Heat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.61
    (1.92)

    1.53
    (1.93)
    3.9%
    (4.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 239.00
    • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)
    What is the prediction for Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Miami will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 31.8%72.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Miami (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +4.5, OT - Miami (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Miami (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 118:123.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 2.
    • In recent matches, Dallas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Miami is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Recently, Dallas has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Miami has had a series of home games.
    • Miami could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Dallas: Exum D. (Knee Injury) Gafford D. (Ankle Injury) Irving K. (Knee Injury) Lively D. (Foot Injury)
    • There will not play in Miami: Johnson K. (Illness) Rozier T. (Suspended)
    • There are questionable in Dallas: Washington P. J. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Miami: Larsson P. (Foot Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 2102:2101. (average 105.1:105.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1014:1013. (average 101.4:101.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat were as follows:
    24.11.2025 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 106:102
    13.02.2025 Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat 118:113
    24.11.2024 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 123:118
    17.07.2024 Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat 79:92
    10.04.2024 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 92:111
    Latest results of Dallas Mavericks
    Latest results of Miami Heat
    29.11.2025 Miami Heat - Detroit Pistons 135:138
    26.11.2025 Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks 106:103
    24.11.2025 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 106:102
    23.11.2025 Philadelphia 76ers - Miami Heat 117:127
    NBA Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Oklahoma City Thunder ✔ 7055158294:75240.786
    2San Antonio Spurs6951188213:77090.739
    3Los Angeles Lakers6944258029:79310.638
    4Minnesota Timberwolves7043278318:80460.614
    5Houston Rockets6841277741:74780.603
    6Denver Nuggets7042288449:81540.600
    7Phoenix Suns6939307756:76840.565
    8Los Angeles Clippers6934357824:77860.493
    9Portland Trail Blazers7034368066:82090.486
    10Golden State Warriors6933367936:78990.478
    11Memphis Grizzlies6824447869:80660.353
    12New Orleans Pelicans7024468103:83690.343
    13Dallas Mavericks7023477928:82920.329
    14Utah Jazz6920498085:86400.290
    15Sacramento Kings7018527751:84510.257


    Eastern Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Detroit Pistons6849197984:74710.721
    2Boston Celtics6946237894:73800.667
    3New York Knicks7045258199:77420.643
    4Cleveland Cavaliers6942278221:79270.609
    5Toronto Raptors6839297752:76050.574
    6Orlando Magic6838307855:77650.559
    7Miami Heat6938318294:80650.551
    8Atlanta Hawks6938318147:80460.551
    9Philadelphia 76ers6937327954:80120.536
    10Charlotte Hornets6935347991:77440.507
    11Milwaukee Bucks6828407565:79020.412
    12Chicago Bulls6928417996:83000.406
    13Brooklyn Nets6917527339:79810.246
    14Washington Wizards6816527669:84180.235
    15Indiana Pacers7015557791:84170.214

          Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ NBA (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Oklahoma City Thunder is Qualified for NBA (Play Offs 1/8~finals)