Result
3:3
03/01/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 17
- Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 3.20 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (278/366) | 86% (429/501) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 3.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 4.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (278/366) | 86% (429/501) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (21/55) | 22% (6/27) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (36/63) | 78% (121/156) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 25% (5/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.43 | 1.71 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (9/12) | 50% (7/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 4.04 | 1.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.04 | -1.42 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 8', Ngom O. 🟨,
- 12', 0 - 1, Moutinho J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 16', 1 - 1, Kikas ⚽, Moreira P. (A),
- 35', Arrey-Mbi B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 46', Gabriel Moscardo ↓, Zalazar R. ↑,
- 49', Jovane 🟨,
- 51', 1 - 2, Navarro F. ⚽,
- 56', Sola A. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 56', Otavio ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
- 64', 1 - 3, Zalazar R. ⚽,
- 67', Moutinho J. ↓, Grillitsch F. ↑,
- 68', Dorgeles M. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 3, Jovane ⚽, Encada J. (A),
- 73', 3 - 3, Marcus A. ⚽,
- 77', Navarro F. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
- 80', Kikas ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 80', Jovane ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 88', Marcus A. ↓, Alisson Souza ↑,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
15.8% | Draw
23.5% | Braga
60.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
Estrela da Amadora - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.04 ↓
(6.7) |
4.01 ↓
(4.08) |
1.55 ↓
(1.57) |
5.9%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Braga?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Braga will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 35.2% – 84.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 5).
- Estrela has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Braga is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Braga is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Estrela: Ni
(Injury)
- There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A.
(Foot Injury)
Horta R.
(Red Card)
Niakate S.
(International duty)
Noro J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Vidigal S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Alisson Souza
(Inactive)
Montoia G.
(Injury)
Otavio
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Braga: Lagerbielke G.
(Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Braga?
Estrela da Amadora has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Estrela da Amadora?
Braga has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Braga were as follows:
19.01.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Braga
0:1
11.08.2024
Braga
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
02.03.2024
Braga
-
Estrela da Amadora
3:0
28.09.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Braga
2:4
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 44:7 | 37 | 62 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 59:12 | 47 | 58 |
| 3 | Benfica | 23 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 49:13 | 36 | 55 |
| 4 | Braga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 48:22 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 34:21 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 35 |
| 7 | Estoril | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29:33 | -4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27:34 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Alverca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 26 |
| 11 | Arouca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31:49 | -18 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 25:43 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Nacional | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 20 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18:29 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 | Tondela | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17:36 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | AFS | 23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
