Result
1:1
28/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 29
- Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 0.28 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (356/432) | 68% (176/258) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 0.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 2 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 21 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (356/432) | 68% (176/258) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (35/56) | 24% (14/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (112/161) | 38% (22/58) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (12/40) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.12 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (8/8) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.62 | 1.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | 0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 18', 0 - 1, Junior Todinho ⚽, Gabriel Poveda (A),
- 22', Robson 🟨,
- 41', Dodo 🟨,
- 43', Gabriel Poveda 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Romulo ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
- 46', Gabriel Poveda ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
- 46', Bruno Xavier ↓, Ralf ↑,
- 49', Junior Todinho 🟨,
- 67', Dodo ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,
- 67', Junior Todinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
- 68', Igor Henrique 🟨,
- 69', Bruno Jose ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
- 69', Willian Farias ↓, Waguininho ↑,
- 76', 1 - 1, Waguininho ⚽, Robson (A),
- 82', Ruiz O. 🟨,
- 82', Mayk ↓, Leo Tocantins ↑,
- 82', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Airton ↑,
- 87', Willian Formiga 🟨,
- 88', Igor Henrique ↓, Gustavo Paje ↑,
Chances of winning
Grêmio Novorizontino
46.9% | Draw
31.9% | Vila Nova
21.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+5.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.34 ↑
(1.82) |
3.24 ↑
(3.2) |
4.74 ↑
(4.54) |
-5.4%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 23.1% – 88.1%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.
- Novorizontino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Vila Nova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Vila Nova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Novorizontino is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Caio Dantas
(Inactive)
Fabio Matheus
(Red Card)
Jordi
(Inactive)
Marlon
(Inactive)
Patrick
(Yellow Cards)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
Vitinho
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Vila Nova: Andre Luis
(Inactive)
Arilson
(Inactive)
Higor
(Yellow Cards)
Tiago Pagnussat
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Novorizontino: Cesar Martins
(Injury)
Jean Irmer
(Inactive)
Waguininho
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Vila Nova: Emerson Urso
(Injury)
Willian Formiga
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Vila Nova?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vila Nova won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
Vila Nova has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova were as follows:
30.05.2025
Vila Nova
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
0:1
31.08.2024
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Vila Nova
2:0
14.05.2024
Vila Nova
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
2:1
30.07.2023
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Vila Nova
3:1
15.04.2023
Vila Nova
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
2:1
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Latest results of Vila Nova
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coritiba | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 34:21 | 13 | 56 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 36:27 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 42:29 | 13 | 53 |
| 4 | Goias | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36:29 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | Chapecoense-SC | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 44:31 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Remo | 32 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 39:31 | 8 | 51 |
| 7 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 45:42 | 3 | 49 |
| 8 | Cuiaba | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 38:35 | 3 | 49 |
| 9 | CRB | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 38:33 | 5 | 47 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 35:33 | 2 | 45 |
| 11 | Avai | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 40:34 | 6 | 44 |
| 12 | Vila Nova FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Operario-PR | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | -4 | 39 |
| 14 | America MG | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 34:39 | -5 | 37 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 | Ferroviaria | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 |
| 17 | Volta Redonda | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 22:34 | -12 | 34 |
| 18 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 27:47 | -20 | 33 |
| 19 | Amazonas | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 32 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
