Result
1:2
21/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 15
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 1.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (237/312) | 81% (298/368) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 1.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (237/312) | 81% (298/368) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (17/47) | 30% (16/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (49/89) | 60% (49/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (7/20) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 1.04 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 82% (9/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.14 | 0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 23', Manso T. 🟨,
- 31', Nhaga R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 53', Afonso J. 🟨,
- 58', 1 - 0, Cavaleiro I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 61', Manso T. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
- 61', 1 - 1, Larrazabal G. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
- 66', Oukili Y. 🟨,
- 69', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
- 69', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 70', 1 - 2, Nhaga R. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
- 78', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
- 79', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 81', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
- 82', Geraldes A. 🟨,
- 86', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
- 86', Maviram E. ↓, Rony Lopes ↑,
- 87', Larrazabal G. ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
- 87', Livolant J. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tondela
42.7% | Draw
29.9% | Casa Pia
27.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
Tondela - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.21 ↓
(2.39) |
3.16 ↓
(3.24) |
3.43 ↑
(3.02) |
6.1%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Tondela - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tondela: 48.9% – 84.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Tondela (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Tondela (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Tondela (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Tondela (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- Both teams are currently in poor form.
- Tondela is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto
(Injury)
Medina B.
(Red Card)
Moudjatovic M.
(Injury)
Sithole S.
(International duty)
Vita R.
(International duty)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Mendes C.
(Knee Injury)
Mohamed I.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Sequeira P.
(Inactive)
Svensson M.
(Inactive)
- The teams have not played against each other recently.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Casa Pia?
Tondela has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Tondela?
Casa Pia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Casa Pia were as follows:
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
