Result
1:0
28/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6
- Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium |
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports 2 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Sports 3 |
 Belarus | Okko Sport |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | ESPN Premium |
 Colombia | ESPN |
 Croatia | MAXtv To Go |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 South-america | ESPN South |
 Spain | LaLiga+ app |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 1.14 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (218/312) | 83% (430/518) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 1.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (218/312) | 83% (430/518) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 24% (15/62) | 55% (30/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (43/82) | 70% (93/132) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (4/20) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (18/25) | 67% (16/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 3', Baez Corradi G. 🟨,
- 31', Calione P. 🟨,
- 43', Morales L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Arias J. J. 🟨,
- 66', Otero R. ↓, Mereles E. ↑,
- 67', Eduardo Vargas ↓, Petit G. ↑,
- 74', Morales L. ↓, Ancheta E. ↑,
- 77', Viveros K. 🟨,
- 77', Arce B. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
- 82', Zapata J. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
- 82', Hinestroza M. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 0, Oliva C. ⚽, Ancheta E. (A),
- 90', Boggio L. ↓, Arady B. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional Montevideo
37.6% | Draw
28.3% | Atlético Nacional
34.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↑
(2.44) |
3.33 ↑
(3.29) |
2.76 ↓
(2.91) |
6%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
- Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Atlético Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Nacional: Mereles E.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Coates S.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.2:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Montevideo won against Atlético Nacional?
Nacional Montevideo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Nacional Montevideo?
Atlético Nacional has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
02.04.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Nacional Montevideo
3:0
Latest results of Nacional Montevideo
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | 0 : 0 |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | 0 : 4 |
| 5 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | 0 : 1 |
| 8 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | 1 : 0 |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
