Result
3:1
19/01/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Romania | AntenaPLAY |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 1.55 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off Goal |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 18 |
| Touches in the Opposition Box |
|---|
| 24 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (285/364) | 78% (283/362) |
| Passes in the final third |
|---|
| 65% (55/84) | 62% (64/103) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 29% (7/24) |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (12/18) | 50% (6/12) |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 27 | 7 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 19', Roux B. 🟨,
- 20', 1 - 0, Bruno Costa (Pen),
- 34', 2 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
- 45+3', 2 - 1, Ribeiro R. ⚽, Lucas Piazon (A),
- 45+6', 3 - 1, Soumare D. ⚽, Jose Gomes (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Roux B. ↓, Tunde Akinsola ↑,
- 46', Isaac ↓, Joel ↑,
- 46', Grau J. ↓, Nene ↑,
- 69', Dudu ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
- 69', Daniel Penha ↓, Matheus Dias ↑,
- 70', Soumare D. 🟨,
- 75', Kiki ↓, Rodrigues R. ↑,
- 76', Lucas Piazon 🟨,
- 79', Assuncao G. A. 🟨,
- 84', Nene (Pen),
- 86', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 87', Soumare D. ↓, Leo Santos ↑,
- 87', Esteves L. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 88', Mercado J. ↓, Ze Luis ↑,
- 90+3', Mena Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
46% | Draw
28.7% | AVS
25.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-5.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Nacional - AVS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.06 ↓
(2.38) |
3.29 ↑
(3.13) |
3.72 ↑
(3.13) |
6%
(6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - AVS?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). AVS will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 21.4% – 67.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- Both teams are now playing unstable.
- AVS could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in AVS: Lucas Moura
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Muscle Injury)
Macedo R.
(Injury)
- Last 3 head-to-head matches Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).
- Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against AVS?
Nacional has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Nacional?
AVS has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - AVS were as follows:
10.08.2024
AVS
-
Nacional
1:1
06.04.2024
Nacional
-
AVS
2:1
19.11.2023
AVS
-
Nacional
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Braga | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Famalicao | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 3 |
| 10 | Arouca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Nacional | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Tondela | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | AFS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
