Result
2:2
21/12/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 15
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (176/251) | 83% (379/459) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 1.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 1.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (176/251) | 83% (379/459) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (28/66) | 40% (17/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (65/100) | 61% (73/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (3/27) | 22% (6/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 47 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.46 | 2.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.54 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 35', 1 - 0, Tomane ⚽,
- 44', 2 - 0, Akinsola T. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Matheus Dias ↓, Jose Gomes ↑,
- 46', Vallier L. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 51', 2 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽, Labidi C. (A),
- 57', Tomane 🟨,
- 61', 2 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽,
- 68', Kiki ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
- 68', Perea O. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
- 70', Semedo R. 🟥,
- 81', Grau J. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
- 81', Pedro Lima ↓, Assuncao G. ↑,
- 83', Pablo Ruan ↓, Nourani M. ↑,
- 83', Baeza M. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 85', Tomane ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
- 90+3', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
Chances of winning
AVS
29.8% | Draw
29.3% | Nacional
40.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
AVS - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.18 ↑
(2.98) |
3.19
(3.19) |
2.32 ↓
(2.44) |
6%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for AVS - Nacional?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 10 high ROI users predict this event. AVS (votes: 3 - 30%). Nacional (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Users Predictions:
Nacional will win
(17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).
- Recent performances by AVS have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nacional could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in AVS: Molina G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Nacional: Deivison
(Red Card)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Leo Santos
(Yellow Cards)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
Witi
(International duty)
- There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes
(Inactive)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Nacional?
AVS has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against AVS?
Nacional has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AVS - Nacional were as follows:
19.01.2025
Nacional
-
AVS
3:1
10.08.2024
AVS
-
Nacional
1:1
06.04.2024
Nacional
-
AVS
2:1
19.11.2023
AVS
-
Nacional
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
