Result
1:3
14/03/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 30
- Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (354/414) | 79% (285/362) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 1.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (354/414) | 79% (285/362) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 71% (35/49) | 50% (31/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (98/130) | 71% (80/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (4/17) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 1.15 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (11/18) | 83% (15/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.82 | 0.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.18 | -0.83 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 17', 0 - 1, Alesi G. ⚽, Pittarello F. (A),
- 36', Liberali M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 51', 0 - 2, Iemmello P. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
- 54', Caprari G. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 54', Belli F. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
- 59', Liberali M. ↓, Koffi N. ↑,
- 65', Di Mariano F. 🟨,
- 68', Di Mariano F. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 68', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 68', Faedo C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 74', Alesi G. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
- 74', Petriccione J. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
- 83', Favasuli C. 🟨,
- 85', Pittarello F. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
- 85', Pontisso S. ↓, Buglio D. ↑,
- 90+2', 1 - 2, Di Maggio L. ⚽,
- 90+4', 1 - 3, Iemmello P. ⚽, Nuamah P. (A),
Chances of winning
Padova
28.8% | Draw
29.9% | Catanzaro
41.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Padova - Catanzaro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.24 ↑
(2.92) |
3.17 ↑
(3.13) |
2.27 ↓
(2.41) |
6.4%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Padova - Catanzaro?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Padova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Catanzaro is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Barreca A.
(Inactive)
Bortolussi M.
(Inactive)
Harder J.
(Injury)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A.
(Injury)
Di Francesco F.
(Inactive)
Oudin R.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Catanzaro: Pittarello F.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Catanzaro?
Padova has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Catanzaro won against Padova?
Catanzaro has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Catanzaro were as follows:
19.10.2025
Catanzaro
-
Padova
0:1
Latest results of Catanzaro
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
