Guaraní Asuncion vs Cerro Porteño: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

10/05/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción).

: Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 18
Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	1.29
Ball Possession
49%	51%
Total shots
13	14
Shots on target
1	2
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	5
Passes
70% (230/330)	75% (260/348)
Yellow Cards
3	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66	1.29
xG on target (xGOT)
0.07	1.00
Total shots
13	14
Shots on target
1	2
Shots off target
10	8
Blocked Shots
2	4
Shots inside the Box
8	6
Shots outside the Box
5	8
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
6	5
Touches in opposition box
26	24
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
4	3
Free Kicks
14	14
Passes
70% (230/330)	75% (260/348)
Long passes
35% (19/55)	42% (27/64)
Passes in final third
56% (57/101)	51% (47/92)
Crosses
35% (8/23)	50% (8/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.34	0.81
Throw-ins
20	20
Fouls
14	14
Tackles
52% (12/23)	80% (12/15)
Duels won
61	72
Clearances
22	38
Interceptions
4	14
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	1
xGOT faced
1.00	0.07
Goals prevented
-1.00	0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', Leon D. 🟨,
8', 0 - 1, Araujo S. ⚽,
22', Pinatares B. ↓, Maiz A. ↑,
26', 0 - 2, Araujo S. ⚽, Aguayo G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mendieta W. ↓, Torales Richard ↑,
46', Araujo S. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
46', Rodriguez D. 🟨,
55', Vargas G. 🟨,
56', Benitez Cabrera A. J. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
63', Dominguez C. ↓, Chico ↑,
65', Perez D. ↓, Patino Martinez J. ↑,
65', Fernandez F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
67', Manzur A. 🟨,
73', Fernandez D. 🟨,
80', Farina A. ↓, Piris R. ↑,
88', Perez M. ↓, Velazquez G. ↑,
89', Aguayo G. ↓, Iturbe J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Guaraní Asuncion
28.8%

Draw
29.8%

Cerro Porteño
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

28.3%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

29.2%

46.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro Porteño could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↓ (3.55)	3.11 ↓ (3.29)	2.24 ↑ (2.05)	7.7% (7.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño?

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Guaraní (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.25 - Guaraní (votes: 3 - 100%).

AH +0.5 - Guaraní (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 and 4).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 3.
Guaraní has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Cerro Porteño has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Cerro Porteño has had a series of home games.
Cerro Porteño could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:25. (average 0.9:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Guaraní won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Guaraní Asuncion won against Cerro Porteño?

Guaraní Asuncion has won 4 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Cerro Porteño won against Guaraní Asuncion?

Cerro Porteño has won 4 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño were as follows:

02.03.2025 Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion 0:1

16.11.2024 Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion 1:2

31.08.2024 Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño 1:0

22.05.2024 Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion 2:0

01.03.2024 Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño 1:1

Latest results of Guaraní Asuncion

06.05.2025 Nacional Potosí - Guaraní Asuncion 2:2 ✺

02.05.2025 Deportivo Recoleta - Guaraní Asuncion 0:3 ✺

26.04.2025 Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion 2:1 ✺

22.04.2025 Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente 2:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion 1:3 ✺

Latest results of Cerro Porteño

07.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras 0:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion 1:2 ✺

28.04.2025 Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño 1:3 ✺

24.04.2025 Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal 2:2 ✺

20.04.2025 Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Trinidense 1:0 ✺

Paraguayan Primera Division Table

Apertura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Libertad Asuncion	22	12	8	2	35:15	20	44
2	Cerro Porteno	22	11	6	5	33:18	15	39
3	Guarani	22	12	2	8	27:24	3	38
4	Sportivo Trinidense	22	8	10	4	27:22	5	34
5	Olimpia Asuncion	22	8	9	5	27:22	5	33
6	Ameliano	22	7	8	7	23:20	3	29
7	Recoleta	22	6	9	7	29:31	-2	27
8	Nacional Asuncion	22	7	4	11	23:28	-5	25
9	General Caballero JLM	22	5	7	10	19:26	-7	22
10	Sp. Luqueno	22	4	10	8	13:25	-12	22
11	2 de Mayo	22	2	12	8	15:26	-11	18
12	Atl. Tembetary	22	3	9	10	17:31	-14	18

Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz