Cincinnati vs Austin FC – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS Cincinnati - Austin FC
Result
2:1
10/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Referee: Penso T. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaMLS Season Pass

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.582.14
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
1710
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
111
Passes
84% (437/522)83% (322/388)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.582.14
xG on target (xGOT)
2.450.73
Total shots
1710
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
73
Blocked Shots
35
Shots inside the Box
117
Shots outside the Box
63
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
111
Touches in opposition box
3223
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
169
Passes
84% (437/522)83% (322/388)
Long passes
49% (25/51)31% (16/51)
Passes in final third
69% (105/152)68% (71/105)
Crosses
28% (5/18)28% (7/25)
Expected assists (xA)
1.390.92
Throw-ins
2121
Fouls
916
Tackles
64% (9/14)72% (13/18)
Duels won
5042
Clearances
2341
Interceptions
88
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.732.45
Goals prevented
-0.270.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 12', 1 - 0, Evander ,
  • 35', Denkey K. 🟨,
  • 45', Miazga M. , Hadebe T. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 48', 1 - 1, Vazquez B. (Pen),
  • 67', Kubo Y. , Anunga T. ,
  • 68', Sergio Santos , Valenzuela G. ,
  • 69', Sabovic B. 🟨,
  • 73', Vazquez B. , Fodrey C. ,
  • 74', Sanchez I. , Dubersarsky N. ,
  • 76', 2 - 1, Valenzuela G. , Evander (A), Engel L. (A2)
  • 81', Uzuni M. , Bukari O. ,
  • 81', Sabovic B. , Obrian J. ,
  • 83', Orellano L. , Yedlin D. ,
  • 87', Kolmanic Z. , Rubio D. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
56.6%
Draw
23.5%
Austin FC
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45.5% 25.7% 28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4% 24.7% 27.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cincinnati's performance.
  • Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Austin FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (-9.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cincinnati that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Austin FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Cincinnati - Austin FC Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.7
    (2.09)
    4.06
    (3.71)
    4.78
    (3.31)
    4.5%
    (5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Austin FC?
  • Users Predictions: Cincinnati will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 81.37%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cincinnati will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • Cincinnati is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Austin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Cincinnati may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Cincinnati is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Kann A. (Hip Injury)
    • There will not play in Austin: Desler M. (Hamstring Injury) Pereira D. (Hip Injury)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cincinnati won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    Latest results of Austin FC
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC ✔ 31176856:381857
    2Vancouver Whitecaps ✔ 30168657:322556
    3Minnesota United ✔ 31159751:361554
    4Los Angeles FC ✔ 30158760:372353
    5Seattle Sounders30129952:45745
    6Austin FC301281033:37-444
    7Portland Timbers3111101039:41-243
    8Colorado Rapids311161441:52-1139
    9FC Dallas309101145:49-437
    10Houston Dynamo32991441:52-1136
    11San Jose Earthquakes31981456:58-235
    12Real Salt Lake301041632:45-1334
    13St. Louis City32771839:55-1628
    14Sporting Kansas City31761845:63-1827
    15Los Angeles Galaxy30491737:61-2421


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union ✔ 32196756:332363
    2FC Cincinnati ✔ 31184947:39858
    3New York City ✔ 321751049:41856
    4Inter Miami ✔ 30168665:471856
    5Charlotte ✔ 321721352:46653
    6Nashville SC321651155:391653
    7Orlando City30149758:431551
    8Columbus Crew321311851:49250
    9Chicago Fire311461159:53648
    10New York Red Bulls321271347:43443
    11New England Revolution32981541:45-435
    12Toronto FC315131331:38-728
    13CF Montreal32691733:56-2327
    14Atlanta Utd315121437:57-2027
    15DC United325101729:64-3525

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    San Diego FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Vancouver Whitecaps is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Minnesota United is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Los Angeles FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    FC Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New York City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Inter Miami is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Charlotte is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)