Cincinnati vs Austin FC – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1

10/05/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH).

MLS
Referee: Penso T. (Usa)
Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.58	2.14
Ball Possession
56%	44%
Total shots
17	10
Shots on target
7	2
Big Chances
3	3
Corner Kicks
11	1
Passes
84% (437/522)	83% (322/388)
Yellow Cards
1	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58	2.14
xG on target (xGOT)
2.45	0.73
Total shots
17	10
Shots on target
7	2
Shots off target
7	3
Blocked Shots
3	5
Shots inside the Box
11	7
Shots outside the Box
6	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
3	3
Corner Kicks
11	1
Touches in opposition box
32	23
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
16	9
Passes
84% (437/522)	83% (322/388)
Long passes
49% (25/51)	31% (16/51)
Passes in final third
69% (105/152)	68% (71/105)
Crosses
28% (5/18)	28% (7/25)
Expected assists (xA)
1.39	0.92
Throw-ins
21	21
Fouls
9	16
Tackles
64% (9/14)	72% (13/18)
Duels won
50	42
Clearances
23	41
Interceptions
8	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	5
xGOT faced
0.73	2.45
Goals prevented
-0.27	0.36

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Evander ⚽,
35', Denkey K. 🟨,
45', Miazga M. ↓, Hadebe T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Vazquez B. (Pen),
67', Kubo Y. ↓, Anunga T. ↑,
68', Sergio Santos ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
69', Sabovic B. 🟨,
73', Vazquez B. ↓, Fodrey C. ↑,
74', Sanchez I. ↓, Dubersarsky N. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Valenzuela G. ⚽, Evander (A), Engel L. (A2)
81', Uzuni M. ↓, Bukari O. ↑,
81', Sabovic B. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
83', Orellano L. ↓, Yedlin D. ↑,
87', Kolmanic Z. ↓, Rubio D. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cincinnati
56.6%

Draw
23.5%

Austin FC
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

24.7%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cincinnati's performance.

Austin FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Austin FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cincinnati that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austin FC than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Austin FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cincinnati - Austin FC Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.09)	4.06 ↑ (3.71)	4.78 ↑ (3.31)	4.5% (5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Austin FC?

Users Predictions: Cincinnati will win (23 of 25 users predict this - 92%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.37% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cincinnati will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
Cincinnati is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Austin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Cincinnati may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Cincinnati is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Cincinnati: Kann A. (Hip Injury)
There will not play in Austin: Desler M. (Hamstring Injury) Pereira D. (Hip Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cincinnati won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Latest results of Cincinnati

04.05.2025 New York City - Cincinnati 1:0 ✺

26.04.2025 Cincinnati - Sporting Kansas City 2:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Chicago Fire - Cincinnati 2:3 ✺

12.04.2025 DC United - Cincinnati 0:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Cincinnati - New England Revolution 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Austin FC

07.05.2025 Austin FC - El Paso Locomotive 3:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Austin FC - Minnesota United 0:3 ✺

26.04.2025 Houston Dynamo - Austin FC 2:0 ✺

19.04.2025 Austin FC - Los Angeles Galaxy 1:0 ✺

12.04.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps - Austin FC 5:1 ✺

MLS Table

Main

Western Conference

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	San Diego FC	29	17	5	7	54:34	20	56
2	Minnesota United	29	14	9	6	48:32	16	51
3	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	14	7	6	47:31	16	49
4	Seattle Sounders	27	12	8	7	48:38	10	44
5	Los Angeles FC	26	11	8	7	45:33	12	41
6	Portland Timbers	28	10	9	9	36:38	-2	39
7	Austin FC	27	10	8	9	29:33	-4	38
8	Colorado Rapids	29	10	6	13	38:48	-10	36
9	San Jose Earthquakes	29	9	8	12	53:51	2	35
10	Houston Dynamo	28	8	8	12	37:46	-9	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	4	14	28:36	-8	31
12	FC Dallas	27	7	9	11	39:47	-8	30
13	Sporting Kansas City	28	7	6	15	43:57	-14	27
14	St. Louis City	28	5	6	17	33:50	-17	21
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	27	4	7	16	32:55	-23	19

Eastern Conference

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Philadelphia Union	29	17	6	6	49:26	23	57
2	FC Cincinnati	29	16	4	9	42:36	6	52
3	Charlotte	29	16	2	11	48:40	8	50
4	Nashville SC	29	15	5	9	49:33	16	50
5	Orlando City	28	13	8	7	54:40	14	47
6	Inter Miami	25	13	7	5	54:40	14	46
7	Columbus Crew	28	12	10	6	43:39	4	46
8	New York City	27	13	5	9	38:32	6	44
9	New York Red Bulls	29	11	7	11	42:38	4	40
10	Chicago Fire	27	11	6	10	50:48	2	39
11	New England Revolution	28	8	7	13	36:40	-4	31
12	Atlanta Utd	28	5	11	12	32:49	-17	26
13	Toronto FC	28	5	10	13	28:35	-7	25
14	CF Montreal	29	5	9	15	29:51	-22	24
15	DC United	29	5	9	15	26:54	-28	24

Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

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