Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
118:108
03/12/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • NBA
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaESPN
worldWorldNBA Global League Pass

Match Stats

Field Goals Attempted
91101
Field Goals Made
4640
Field Goals %
50.55%39.6%
2-Point Field G. Attempted
5964
2-Point Field Goals Made
3029
2-Point Field Goals %
50.85%45.31%
3-Point Field G. Attempted
3237
3-Point Field Goals Made
1611
3-Point Field Goals %
50%29.73%
Free Throws Attempted
1218
Free Throws Made
1017
Free Throws %
83.3%94.4%
Offensive Rebounds
1014
Defensive Rebounds
4027
Total Rebounds
5041
Assists
3129
Blocks
75
Turnovers
108
Steals
611
Personal Fouls
1513
Technical Fouls
21

Highlights

Chances of winning


Dallas Mavericks
37%
Miami Heat
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.1% 49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52% 48%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Dallas Mavericks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dallas Mavericks's form might have worsened.
  • Miami Heat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Miami Heat's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dallas Mavericks than the current prediction. (+15%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dallas Mavericks, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami Heat than the current prediction. (-15%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Miami Heat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.61
    (1.92)

    1.53
    (1.93)
    3.9%
    (4.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 239.00
    • The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)
    What is the prediction for Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). Miami will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Dallas: 31.8%72.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 14 high ROI users predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Miami (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +4.5, OT - Miami (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Dallas (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Miami (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 118:123.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NBA (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 2.
    • In recent matches, Dallas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Miami is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Recently, Dallas has had a series of away games.
    • Recently, Miami has had a series of home games.
    • Miami could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Dallas: Exum D. (Knee Injury) Gafford D. (Ankle Injury) Irving K. (Knee Injury) Lively D. (Foot Injury)
    • There will not play in Miami: Johnson K. (Illness) Rozier T. (Suspended)
    • There are questionable in Dallas: Washington P. J. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Miami: Larsson P. (Foot Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 2102:2101. (average 105.1:105.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1014:1013. (average 101.4:101.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat were as follows:
    24.11.2025 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 106:102
    13.02.2025 Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat 118:113
    24.11.2024 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 123:118
    17.07.2024 Dallas Mavericks - Miami Heat 79:92
    10.04.2024 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 92:111
    Latest results of Dallas Mavericks
    Latest results of Miami Heat
    29.11.2025 Miami Heat - Detroit Pistons 135:138
    26.11.2025 Miami Heat - Milwaukee Bucks 106:103
    24.11.2025 Miami Heat - Dallas Mavericks 106:102
    23.11.2025 Philadelphia 76ers - Miami Heat 117:127
    NBA Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Oklahoma City Thunder6045157161:64800.750
    2San Antonio Spurs5842166863:64830.724
    3Houston Rockets5736216540:62210.632
    4Denver Nuggets5937227111:68290.627
    5Minnesota Timberwolves5936237056:67930.610
    6Los Angeles Lakers5734236588:66090.596
    7Phoenix Suns5933266614:65710.559
    8Golden State Warriors5931286834:67160.525
    9Portland Trail Blazers5928316830:69820.475
    10Los Angeles Clippers5727306389:64160.474
    11Memphis Grizzlies5721366578:67320.368
    12Dallas Mavericks5721366521:67060.368
    13Utah Jazz5818406842:73000.310
    14New Orleans Pelicans5917426774:71020.288
    15Sacramento Kings6013476604:72670.217


    Eastern Conference
    PlWLPCT
    1Detroit Pistons5743146693:62430.754
    2Boston Celtics5838206637:62340.655
    3New York Knicks5937226909:65920.627
    4Cleveland Cavaliers6037237167:69050.617
    5Toronto Raptors5934256704:65950.576
    6Philadelphia 76ers5832266761:67240.552
    7Orlando Magic5731266560:65330.544
    8Miami Heat5931287078:69070.525
    9Atlanta Hawks6029317017:70800.483
    10Charlotte Hornets5928316837:66930.475
    11Milwaukee Bucks5726316404:65780.456
    12Chicago Bulls5924356832:71060.407
    13Washington Wizards5716416397:69970.281
    14Brooklyn Nets5715426094:65460.263
    15Indiana Pacers5915446580:70350.254

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