Derby County vs Queens Park Rangers – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

25/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Pride Park (Derby).

Championship - Round 12
Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.87	0.54
Ball Possession
39%	61%
Total shots
12	6
Shots on target
4	1
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
5	2
Passes
74% (217/294)	79% (388/489)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87	0.54
xG on target (xGOT)
1.46	0.14
Total shots
12	6
Shots on target
4	1
Shots off target
4	3
Blocked Shots
4	2
Shots inside the Box
7	2
Shots outside the Box
5	4
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
17	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
10	13
Passes
74% (217/294)	79% (388/489)
Long passes
36% (18/50)	43% (23/53)
Passes in final third
60% (58/96)	69% (111/162)
Crosses
14% (3/22)	12% (2/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.83	0.87
Throw-ins
38	29
Fouls
13	10
Tackles
80% (12/15)	56% (15/27)
Duels won
49	60
Clearances
29	38
Interceptions
13	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
0.14	1.46
Goals prevented
0.14	0.46

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Morris C. ⚽, Langas S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Saito K. ↓, Chair I. ↑,
46', Vale H. ↓, Dembele K. ↑,
68', Madsen N. ↓, Smyth P. ↑,
68', Kone R. ↓, Frey M. ↑,
69', Varane J. 🟨,
71', Cook S. 🟨,
72', Agyemang P. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
72', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
75', Norrington-Davies R. ↓, Field S. ↑,
75', Ozoh D. 🟨,
88', Johnston M. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
90+2', Morris C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+2', Morris C. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Derby County
37%

Draw
28.1%

Queens Park Rangers
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

25.8%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.6%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Queens Park Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queens Park Rangers than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Derby County - Queens Park Rangers Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.21)	3.4 ↓ (3.65)	2.76 ↓ (2.98)	5.2% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Derby County - Queens Park Rangers?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). QPR will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 15.1% – 58.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 6 - 66.7%). QPR (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH 0 - QPR (1.80) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - QPR (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - QPR (1.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 15 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 6 - 40%). QPR (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Derby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Derby: Adams E. (Yellow Cards) Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Nelson C. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in QPR: Larkeche Z. (Knee Injury) Walsh J. (Wrist Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Thompson L. (Knee Injury)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 0.9:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Queens Park Rangers?

Derby County has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Queens Park Rangers won against Derby County?

Queens Park Rangers has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Queens Park Rangers were as follows:

14.02.2025 Queens Park Rangers - Derby County 4:0

05.10.2024 Derby County - Queens Park Rangers 2:0

Latest results of Derby County

21.10.2025 Derby County - Norwich City 1:0 ✺

18.10.2025 Oxford United - Derby County 1:0 ✺

04.10.2025 Derby County - Southampton 1:1 ✺

30.09.2025 Derby County - Charlton Athletic 1:1 ✺

27.09.2025 Wrexham - Derby County 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Queens Park Rangers

22.10.2025 Swansea City - Queens Park Rangers 0:1 ✺

18.10.2025 Queens Park Rangers - Millwall 1:2 ✺

04.10.2025 Bristol City - Queens Park Rangers 1:2 ✺

01.10.2025 Queens Park Rangers - Oxford United 0:0 ✺

27.09.2025 Sheffield Wednesday - Queens Park Rangers 1:1 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coventry	35	21	8	6	72:38	34	71
2	Middlesbrough	35	19	9	7	54:35	19	66
3	Ipswich	34	18	9	7	60:34	26	63
4	Millwall	35	18	8	9	47:40	7	62
5	Hull	35	18	6	11	56:49	7	60
6	Wrexham	35	15	12	8	54:45	9	57
7	Southampton	35	14	11	10	57:46	11	53
8	Derby	35	14	9	12	52:46	6	51
9	Watford	35	13	12	10	45:41	4	51
10	Bristol City	35	14	8	13	48:44	4	50
11	Preston	35	12	13	10	41:40	1	49
12	Birmingham	35	13	10	12	46:46	0	49
13	Sheffield Utd	35	15	3	17	50:48	2	48
14	Stoke	35	13	8	14	39:34	5	47
15	QPR	35	13	8	14	46:54	-8	47
16	Swansea	35	13	7	15	40:43	-3	46
17	Norwich	35	13	6	16	47:44	3	45
18	Charlton	35	10	11	14	33:44	-11	41
19	Portsmouth	34	10	9	15	34:44	-10	39
20	Blackburn	35	10	8	17	33:46	-13	38
21	West Brom	35	9	8	18	34:52	-18	35
22	Leicester	35	10	10	15	47:56	-9	34
23	Oxford Utd	35	7	11	17	31:47	-16	32
24	Sheffield Wed ✔	35	1	8	26	21:71	-50	-7

      Promotion ~ Premier League
      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One

Clinched Spots for Teams

Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One