Result
0:5
19/01/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.22 | 2.29 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (281/350) | 87% (474/544) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.22 | 2.29 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 3.38 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 7 | 32 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (281/350) | 87% (474/544) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (17/41) | 60% (26/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (58/88) | 75% (80/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/12) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (9/14) | 50% (10/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.38 | 0.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.62 | 0.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Carvalho J. ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
- 45', Marcus A. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 4)
- 46', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
- 46', Stoica I. ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 51', 0 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
- 54', 0 - 3, Begraoui Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 64', 0 - 4, Marques A. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
- 66', Boma K. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
- 66', Marques A. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 66', Carvalho J. ↓, Ferro ↑,
- 67', Sanchez R. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 67', Sola A. ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 67', Meireles J. ↓, Alisson Souza ↑,
- 70', 0 - 5, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Amaral P. (A),
- 73', Robinho 🟨,
- 78', Holsgrove J. ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
- 80', Otavio ↓, Chernev A. ↑,
- 81', Jandro 🟨,
- 84', Peixinho 🟨,
- 90+2', Jovane 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
33.1% | Draw
27.2% | Estoril Praia
39.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estoril Praia's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Estoril Praia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.84 ↑
(2.49) |
3.46 ↑
(3.03) |
2.38 ↓
(2.84) |
6.2%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Estoril will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.3% – 56.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Estrela (2.11) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- DC - Estoril (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 6 - 50%). Estoril (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 10).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Estrela: Ni
(Injury)
- There will not play in Estoril: Costa G.
(Injury)
Xeka
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
Lacximicant A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Estoril Praia?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Estrela da Amadora?
Estoril Praia has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia were as follows:
11.08.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
17.05.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Estrela da Amadora
4:0
05.01.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Estoril Praia
2:4
04.02.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:0
25.08.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Estoril Praia
2:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
