Result
2:1
25/01/2026 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, RedeTV!, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.00 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (308/366) | 88% (488/552) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 1.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 1.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (308/366) | 88% (488/552) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (20/41) | 69% (42/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (71/97) | 78% (87/111) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 16% (3/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.34 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 22 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.03 | 1.64 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.03 | -0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 9', Allan 🟨,
- 18', Guga 🟨,
- 24', Canobbio A. 🟨,
- 45+2', Vitao 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
- 46', Allan ↓, Pulgar E. ↑,
- 46', Canobbio A. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
- 52', 1 - 0, Serna K. ⚽, Moreno S. (A),
- 55', Alex Sandro ↓, Varela G. ↑,
- 56', Lima 🟨,
- 64', Carrascal J. ↓, Plata G. ↑,
- 66', 2 - 0, John Kennedy ⚽,
- 67', John Kennedy 🟨,
- 70', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
- 73', 2 - 1, Evertton Araujo ⚽, Vitao (A),
- 74', Guilherme Arana ↓, Rene ↑,
- 74', Lima ↓, Martinelli ↑,
- 79', Serna K. 🟨,
- 83', Nonato ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
- 90+2', John Kennedy ↓, Everaldo ↑,
Chances of winning
Fluminense
25% | Draw
33.4% | Flamengo
41.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Fluminense - Flamengo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.69 ↓
(4.28) |
2.76 ↓
(3.22) |
2.22 ↑
(1.86) |
8.4%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Fluminense - Flamengo?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Fluminense (1.66) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.
- Fluminense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Flamengo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Flamengo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Flamengo could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:20. (average 0.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 0.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against Flamengo?
Fluminense has won 5 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Flamengo won against Fluminense?
Flamengo has won 7 of their last 17 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Flamengo were as follows:
19.11.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
2:1
20.07.2025
Flamengo
-
Fluminense
1:0
12.03.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
1:2
08.02.2025
Fluminense
-
Flamengo
0:0
17.10.2024
Flamengo
-
Fluminense
0:2
Latest results of Fluminense
Latest results of Flamengo
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca Table
2026Group A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Fluminense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Volta Redonda | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Bangu | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6:6 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vasco | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Sampaio Correa FE | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Portuguesa RJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 4 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Botafogo RJ | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6:3 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Madureira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 7 |
| 3 | Boavista | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nova Iguacu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | Flamengo RJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 4 |
| 6 | Marica | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5:9 | -4 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
