Freiburg vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/11/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg).

Bundesliga - Round 12
Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
3.33	0.11
Ball Possession
75%	25%
Total shots
23	1
Shots on target
10	1
Big Chances
6	0
Corner Kicks
6	2
Passes
90% (644/719)	70% (171/244)
Yellow Cards
0	2
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
3.33	0.11
xG on target (xGOT)
3.34	0.47
Total shots
23	1
Shots on target
10	1
Shots off target
7	0
Blocked Shots
6	0
Shots inside the Box
16	0
Shots outside the Box
7	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
6	0
Corner Kicks
6	2
Touches in opposition box
44	7
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
4	0
Free Kicks
12	9
Passes
90% (644/719)	70% (171/244)
Long passes
66% (39/59)	22% (12/54)
Passes in final third
78% (139/178)	48% (19/40)
Crosses
42% (8/19)	100% (2/2)
Expected assists (xA)
3.18	0.52
Throw-ins
26	17
Fouls
9	12
Tackles
53% (9/17)	50% (3/6)
Duels won
56	23
Clearances
5	28
Interceptions
6	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
1	6
xGOT faced
0.47	3.34
Goals prevented
0.47	-0.66

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Kubler L. ⚽, Lienhart P. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Holer L. (A),
28', Nebel P. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 3 - 0, Manzambi J. ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
53', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
54', Nordin A. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
65', Bell S. 🟨,
68', Kubler L. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
69', Suzuki Y. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
73', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
73', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
73', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
81', Beste J. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
81', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90', 4 - 0, Osterhage P. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),

Chances of winning

Freiburg
51.2%

Draw
27.3%

Mainz
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.2%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Freiburg - Mainz Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.02)	3.51 ↑ (3.48)	4.47 ↑ (3.75)	3.9% (4.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Freiburg - Mainz?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Freiburg (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Freiburg (1.31) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Freiburg will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 22 high ROI users predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 1.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Recently, Freiburg has had a series of away games.
In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.
There will not play in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Irie C. (Illness) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Makengo J. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Yellow Cards) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)
There are questionable in Mainz: Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.2:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Freiburg won against Mainz?

Freiburg has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Freiburg?

Mainz has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Freiburg - Mainz were as follows:

15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2

03.11.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 0:0

21.04.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 1:1

03.12.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 0:1

19.03.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 1:1

Latest results of Freiburg

27.11.2025 Viktoria Plzeň - Freiburg 0:0 ✺

22.11.2025 Bayern Munich - Freiburg 6:2 ✺

09.11.2025 Freiburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺

06.11.2025 Nice - Freiburg 1:3 ✺

01.11.2025 Union Berlin - Freiburg 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Mainz

27.11.2025 Universitatea Craiova - Mainz 1:0 ✺

21.11.2025 Mainz - Hoffenheim 1:1 ✺

09.11.2025 Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz 1:0 ✺

06.11.2025 Mainz - Fiorentina 2:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Mainz - Werder Bremen 1:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	24	20	3	1	88:23	65	63
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	51:25	26	52
3	Hoffenheim	24	14	4	6	49:31	18	46
4	Stuttgart	24	14	4	6	48:32	16	46
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	5	6	46:33	13	44
6	Bayer Leverkusen	23	12	4	7	44:29	15	40
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	48:49	-1	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	34:39	-5	33
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	30:41	-11	31
10	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	29:38	-9	28
11	Hamburger SV	23	6	8	9	26:34	-8	26
12	B. Monchengladbach	24	6	7	11	27:39	-12	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	33:41	-8	24
14	Mainz	24	5	8	11	27:39	-12	23
15	St. Pauli	24	6	5	13	23:40	-17	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	25:44	-19	22
17	Wolfsburg	24	5	5	14	33:53	-20	20
18	Heidenheim	24	3	5	16	22:53	-31	14

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga