Mainz vs Freiburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:1
12/04/2026 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 29
  • Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes World Football
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
austriaAustriaDAZN
boliviaBoliviaESPN 5
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 4P
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+, ESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 5
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 7
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
ecuadorEcuadorESPN 5
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceNova Sports 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
hungaryHungaryArena 4
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
maldivesMaldivesMedianet
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
mexicoMexicoIzzi TV, Sky Sport
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
pakistanPakistanTapmad
paraguayParaguayESPN 5
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN 5
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 5, Voyo
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN 5, Inter
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.630.57
Ball possession
51%49%
Total shots
108
Shots on target
33
Big chances
00
Corner kicks
64
Passes
75% (254/340)80% (272/341)
Yellow cards
13
Expected goals (xG)
0.630.57
xG on target (xGOT)
0.440.99
Total shots
108
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
62
Blocked shots
13
Shots inside the box
66
Shots outside the box
42
Hit the woodwork
11
Headed goals
01
Big chances
00
Corner kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2121
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free kicks
1310
Passes
75% (254/340)80% (272/341)
Long passes
55% (32/58)49% (20/41)
Passes in final third
60% (67/111)63% (48/76)
Crosses
17% (5/29)50% (6/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.851.09
Throw ins
2722
Fouls
1013
Tackles
65% (15/23)33% (4/12)
Duels won
5548
Clearances
1646
Interceptions
67
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
23
xGOT faced
0.990.44
Goals prevented
-0.010.44

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 33', Ogbus B. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Eggestein M. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Schuster J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Ogbus B. , Lienhart P. ,
  • 47', 0 - 1, Holer L. , Ginter M. (A),
  • 55', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
  • 62', Kawasaki S. , Amiri N. ,
  • 62', Veratschnig N. , Widmer S. ,
  • 64', Irie C. , Beste J. ,
  • 64', Kubler L. , Treu P. ,
  • 73', Holer L. 🟨,
  • 74', Scherhant D. , Grifo V. ,
  • 74', Mwene P. , Caci A. ,
  • 74', Nebel P. , Sieb A. ,
  • 83', Ginter M. , Makengo J. ,
  • 83', da Costa D. , Weiper N. ,

Chances of winning


Mainz
42.4%
Draw
28.8%
Freiburg
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45% 30.9% 24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1% 30.8% 23.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
  • Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
  • Mainz - Freiburg Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.25
    (2.11)
    3.35
    (3.07)
    3.3
    (3.95)
    4.6%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Freiburg?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 31.2%83%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • DNB - Mainz (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.
    • Mainz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • In recent matches, Freiburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Recently, Freiburg has had a series of home games.
    • Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Freiburg were as follows:
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0
    15.03.2025 Mainz - Freiburg 2:2
    03.11.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 0:0
    21.04.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 1:1
    03.12.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 0:1
    Latest results of Mainz
    09.04.2026 Mainz - Strasbourg 2:0
    04.04.2026 Hoffenheim - Mainz 1:2
    19.03.2026 Mainz - Sigma Olomouc 2:0
    15.03.2026 Werder Bremen - Mainz 0:2
    Latest results of Freiburg
    09.04.2026 Freiburg - Celta de Vigo 3:0
    04.04.2026 Freiburg - Bayern Munich 2:3
    22.03.2026 St. Pauli - Freiburg 1:2
    19.03.2026 Freiburg - Genk 5:1
    15.03.2026 Freiburg - Union Berlin 0:1
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich ✔ 292441105:277876
    2Dortmund29197360:293164
    3Stuttgart29175760:382256
    4RB Leipzig29175756:362056
    5Bayer Leverkusen29157759:392052
    6Hoffenheim29156857:431451
    7Eintracht Frankfurt29119954:54042
    8Freiburg291171142:47-540
    9Mainz29891235:44-933
    10Augsburg29961436:53-1733
    11Union Berlin29881333:50-1732
    12Hamburger SV297101232:45-1331
    13FC Koln29791343:50-730
    14B. Monchengladbach29791335:49-1430
    15Werder Bremen29771532:52-2028
    16St. Pauli29671625:50-2525
    17Wolfsburg29561839:65-2621
    18Heidenheim29471832:64-3219

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Bayern Munich is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )