Mainz vs Freiburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

15/03/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Mewa Arena (Mainz).

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 26
Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 10
Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, RCTI+
Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Montenegro	Sportklub 10
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Flow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	Sportklub 10
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	SportKlub 10
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.24	2.65
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Goal Attempts
9	24
Shots on Goal
4	8
Shots off Goal
4	10
Blocked Shots
1	6
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
1	4
Shots inside the Box
6	20
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Goalkeeper Saves
6	2
Free Kicks
7	7
Offsides
0	1
Fouls
7	7
Yellow Cards
1	2
Red Cards
1	0
Throw-ins
19	24
Touches in the Opposition Box
22	43
Passes
76% (287/378)	81% (372/458)
Passes in the final third
64% (70/109)	74% (133/179)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	37% (13/35)
Tackles
43% (3/7)	71% (5/7)
Clearances Total
37	24
Interceptions
11	6

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Adamu J. 🟨,
28', Mwene P. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Burkardt J. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
43', Kohr D. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Adamu J. ↓, Gregoritsch M. ↑,
46', Mwene P. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Gregoritsch M. ⚽, Gunter C. (A),
74', 2 - 1, Hanche-Olsen A. ⚽, Caci A. (A),
76', Eggestein M. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
76', Sildillia K. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Kubler L. ⚽, Doan R. (A),
86', Grifo V. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
87', Holer L. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Mainz
49.2%

Draw
28%

Freiburg
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

29.3%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Mainz - Freiburg Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.99)	3.43 ↑ (3.41)	4.23 ↑ (3.96)	3.7% (4.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Mainz - Freiburg?

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 0.
Mainz in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Freiburg is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Mainz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Mainz is a favorite.
There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury)
There will not play in Freiburg: Gulde M. (Back Injury) Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Ogbus B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Mainz won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 29:23 (average 1.5:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:8 (average 1.8:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against Freiburg?

Mainz has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Freiburg won against Mainz?

Freiburg has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Freiburg were as follows:

03.11.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 0:0

21.04.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 1:1

03.12.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 0:1

19.03.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 1:1

01.10.2022 Freiburg - Mainz 2:1

Latest results of Mainz

07.03.2025 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:3 ✺

01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2 ✺

22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺

16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2 ✺

08.02.2025 Mainz - Augsburg 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Freiburg

08.03.2025 Freiburg - RB Leipzig 0:0 ✺

02.03.2025 Augsburg - Freiburg 0:0 ✺

21.02.2025 Freiburg - Werder Bremen 5:0 ✺

15.02.2025 St. Pauli - Freiburg 0:1 ✺

08.02.2025 Freiburg - Heidenheim 1:0 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	6:0	6	3
2	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wolfsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	B. Monchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	FC Koln	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Mainz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	St. Pauli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Heidenheim	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	0:6	-6	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga