Mainz vs Freiburg – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga Mainz - Freiburg
Result
2:2
15/03/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 26
  • Referee: Brand B. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaNew World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaSportklub 10
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 10
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
germanyGermanySky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hungaryHungaryNet4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision, RCTI+
japanJapanSKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
montenegroMontenegroSportklub 10
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports App Caribbean, Flowsports.co Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaSportklub 10
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandViaplay
serbiaSerbiaSportKlub 10
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldDisney+, Onefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.242.65
Ball Possession
44%56%
Goal Attempts
924
Shots on Goal
48
Shots off Goal
410
Blocked Shots
16
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
14
Shots inside the Box
620
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Goalkeeper Saves
62
Free Kicks
77
Offsides
01
Fouls
77
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
10
Throw-ins
1924
Touches in the Opposition Box
2243
Passes
76% (287/378)81% (372/458)
Passes in the final third
64% (70/109)74% (133/179)
Crosses
20% (3/15)37% (13/35)
Tackles
43% (3/7)71% (5/7)
Clearances Total
3724
Interceptions
116

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 2', Adamu J. 🟨,
  • 28', Mwene P. 🟨,
  • 34', 1 - 0, Burkardt J. , Caci A. (A),
  • 43', Kohr D. 🟥,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Adamu J. , Gregoritsch M. ,
  • 46', Mwene P. , Hanche-Olsen A. ,
  • 58', 1 - 1, Gregoritsch M. , Gunter C. (A),
  • 74', 2 - 1, Hanche-Olsen A. , Caci A. (A),
  • 76', Eggestein M. , Hofler N. ,
  • 76', Sildillia K. , Kubler L. ,
  • 79', 2 - 2, Kubler L. , Doan R. (A),
  • 86', Grifo V. , Beste J. ,
  • 87', Holer L. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mainz
49.2%
Draw
28%
Freiburg
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.9% 28% 24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2% 29.3% 23%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)
  • Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+0.2%)
  • Mainz - Freiburg Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.96
    (1.99)
    3.43
    (3.41)
    4.23
    (3.96)
    3.7%
    (4.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Mainz - Freiburg?
  • Users Predictions: Mainz will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 83.88%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Mainz won 0.
    • Mainz in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Freiburg is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Mainz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Mainz is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bell S. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Freiburg: Gulde M. (Back Injury) Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Ogbus B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Mainz won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 29:23 (average 1.5:1.2).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Mainz won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:8 (average 1.8:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Freiburg were as follows:
    03.11.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 0:0
    21.04.2024 Freiburg - Mainz 1:1
    03.12.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 0:1
    19.03.2023 Mainz - Freiburg 1:1
    01.10.2022 Freiburg - Mainz 2:1
    Latest results of Mainz
    01.03.2025 RB Leipzig - Mainz 1:2
    22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0
    16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2
    08.02.2025 Mainz - Augsburg 0:0
    Latest results of Freiburg
    08.03.2025 Freiburg - RB Leipzig 0:0
    02.03.2025 Augsburg - Freiburg 0:0
    21.02.2025 Freiburg - Werder Bremen 5:0
    15.02.2025 St. Pauli - Freiburg 0:1
    08.02.2025 Freiburg - Heidenheim 1:0
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union Berlin00000:000
    2Eintracht Frankfurt00000:000
    3Bayern Munich00000:000
    4Bayer Leverkusen00000:000
    5Werder Bremen00000:000
    6Hamburger SV00000:000
    7Wolfsburg00000:000
    8Dortmund00000:000
    9B. Monchengladbach00000:000
    10Hoffenheim00000:000
    11FC Koln00000:000
    12Mainz00000:000
    13Freiburg00000:000
    14St. Pauli00000:000
    15Augsburg00000:000
    16Stuttgart00000:000
    17Heidenheim00000:000
    18RB Leipzig00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga