Result
0:1
11/04/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.05 | 0.97 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (339/428) | 79% (306/388) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.05 | 0.97 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 0.58 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 33 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (339/428) | 79% (306/388) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (33/75) | 41% (20/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (93/149) | 67% (62/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (6/23) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.71 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 26 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (8/10) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.99 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.42 | 1.99 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', Okuda H. 🟨,
- 13', Thiago Andrade 🟨,
- 29', Kurata S. 🟨,
- 35', Handa R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
- 40', 0 - 1, Thiago Andrade ⚽, Tanaka S. (A),
- 45', Sakata R. ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Nawata G. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
- 46', Kurata S. ↓, Abe S. ↑,
- 54', Kishimoto T. 🟨,
- 62', Thiago Andrade ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
- 62', Okuda H. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
- 71', Hummet D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 81', Welton ↓, Meshino R. ↑,
- 84', Minamino H. 🟨,
- 86', Nakajima M. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
- 86', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Uejo S. ↑,
- 90+2', Yamashita R. ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gamba Osaka
38% | Draw
28.2% | Cerezo Osaka
33.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.47 ↑
(2.26) |
3.33 ↓
(3.46) |
2.79 ↓
(2.96) |
6.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 92%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 3.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ichimori J.
(Finger Injury)
Sasaki S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Uenaka A.
(Knee Injury)
Usami T.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Knee Injury)
Takahashi T.
(Back Injury)
Uejo S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:30. (average 0.9:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 1:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Cerezo Osaka?
Gamba Osaka has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Gamba Osaka?
Cerezo Osaka has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:
07.02.2026
Cerezo Osaka
-
Gamba Osaka
0:1
05.07.2025
Cerezo Osaka
-
Gamba Osaka
0:1
14.02.2025
Gamba Osaka
-
Cerezo Osaka
2:5
02.10.2024
Cerezo Osaka
-
Gamba Osaka
1:0
06.05.2024
Gamba Osaka
-
Cerezo Osaka
1:0
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:7 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19:10 | 23 |
| 3 | Machida | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:16 | 22 |
| 4 | Verdy | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 7 | Mito | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15:14 | 11 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:18 | 9 |
| 10 | Chiba | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Kyoto | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17:12 | 17 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 8 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | 12 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:17 | 11 |
| 10 | Okayama | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:20 | 11 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
