Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/07/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka).

J1 League - Round 23
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	K-Ball
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.55	1.59
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
5	7
Passes
87% (415/479)	77% (225/293)
Yellow Cards
0	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.55	1.59
xG on target (xGOT)
0.75	0.30
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
10	4
Blocked Shots
3	6
Shots inside the Box
12	9
Shots outside the Box
6	5
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
5	7
Touches in opposition box
31	16
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
14	9
Passes
87% (415/479)	77% (225/293)
Long passes
49% (22/45)	35% (17/49)
Passes in final third
80% (156/196)	65% (62/96)
Crosses
35% (8/23)	38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.43	0.85
Throw-ins
24	22
Fouls
9	14
Tackles
67% (14/21)	50% (4/8)
Duels won
58	34
Clearances
14	35
Interceptions
6	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5
xGOT faced
0.30	0.75
Goals prevented
-0.70	0.75

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Takahashi N. ↓, Noborizato K. ↑,
58', Miura G. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
61', Abe S. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
61', Kurata S. ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Handa R. ⚽, Lavi N. (A),
73', Okuda H. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
73', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
73', Nakajima M. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
79', Yamashita R. 🟨,
81', Yamashita R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
81', Lavi N. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
84', Kagawa S. ↓, Kida H. ↑,
85', Tanaka S. ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
87', Hummet D. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
90', Handa R. 🟨,
90+5', Juan Alano 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cerezo Osaka
41%

Draw
26.9%

Gamba Osaka
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

26.3%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

25.9%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.36)	3.5 ↓ (3.64)	2.9 ↑ (2.88)	6.5% (4.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 3.
Cerezo Osaka is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Gamba Osaka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Cerezo Osaka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Uejo S. (Inactive)
There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Okunuki K. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:17. (average 1.5:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Gamba Osaka?

Cerezo Osaka has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Cerezo Osaka?

Gamba Osaka has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka were as follows:

14.02.2025 Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka 2:5

02.10.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 1:0

06.05.2024 Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka 1:0

28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 1:0

18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 0:1

Latest results of Cerezo Osaka

21.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy 2:1 ✺

14.06.2025 Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka 2:2 ✺

11.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Arterivo Wakayama 5:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Cerezo Osaka 4:0 ✺

04.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama FC 4:1 ✺

Latest results of Gamba Osaka

22.06.2025 Gamba Osaka - Tokyo 2:0 ✺

18.06.2025 Gamba Osaka - Veertien Mie 2:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka 0:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Gamba Osaka - Kashima Antlers 0:1 ✺

25.05.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Gamba Osaka 2:2 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	33	20	5	8	52:28	24	65
2	Kyoto	33	17	9	7	57:35	22	60
3	Kashiwa Reysol	33	16	12	5	48:33	15	60
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	43:28	15	60
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	39:23	16	58
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	49:35	14	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	11	8	60:45	15	53
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	40:32	8	52
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	46:47	-1	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	10	12	50:49	1	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	10	11	12	35:39	-4	41
12	Okayama	33	11	8	14	29:35	-6	41
13	FC Tokyo	33	11	8	14	36:46	-10	41
14	Avispa Fukuoka	33	10	10	13	32:37	-5	40
15	Nagoya Grampus	33	10	9	14	40:48	-8	39
16	Verdy	33	10	9	14	21:35	-14	39
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	8	7	18	32:44	-12	31
18	Yokohama FC	33	8	7	18	21:37	-16	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	33	6	7	20	28:57	-29	25
20	Albirex Niigata	33	4	10	19	30:55	-25	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League