V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/04/2026 at 00:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Peace Stadium (Nagasaki).

J1 League - Round 9
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.46	1.10
Ball possession
54%	46%
Total shots
7	11
Shots on target
1	4
Big chances
0	4
Corner kicks
4	4
Passes
82% (459/559)	80% (373/464)
Yellow cards
0	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.46	1.10
xG on target (xGOT)
0.04	1.23
Total shots
7	11
Shots on target
1	4
Shots off target
4	3
Blocked shots
2	4
Shots inside the box
3	6
Shots outside the box
4	5
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
0	4
Corner kicks
4	4
Touches in opposition box
10	18
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
1	2
Free kicks
10	10
Passes
82% (459/559)	80% (373/464)
Long passes
24% (14/58)	40% (27/68)
Passes in final third
56% (40/72)	67% (97/145)
Crosses
25% (3/12)	27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.68	0.47
Throw ins
22	12
Fouls
10	10
Tackles
63% (5/8)	69% (11/16)
Duels won
45	43
Clearances
18	17
Interceptions
6	7
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper saves
1	1
xGOT faced
1.23	0.04
Goals prevented
-1.77	0.04

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 3)
1', 0 - 1, Oh Se-Hun ⚽,
4', 0 - 2, Shimamoto Y. ⚽, Inoue K. (A),
45+3', 0 - 3, Oh Se-Hun (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Inoue K. ↓, Kozuka K. ↑,
46', Onaga H. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
46', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Dudu Giusti ↑,
73', Kitazume K. ↓, Hidaka H. ↑,
74', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
77', Takagi S. ↓, Hasukawa S. ↑,
83', Diego Pituca ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
83', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
89', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Stephens A. ↑,
90+3', Hasegawa M. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
90+6', Sumiyoshi J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

V-Varen Nagasaki
35.2%

Draw
27.5%

Shimizu S-Pulse
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

26.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

26.9%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.66)	3.39 ↓ (3.52)	2.53 ↑ (2.52)	6.6% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse?

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/E Goals - odd (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
V-Varen Nagasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)
There will not play in Shimizu: Hasukawa S. (Injury)
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.6:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 2.3:2.3).

How many head-to-head matches has V-Varen Nagasaki won against Shimizu S-Pulse?

V-Varen Nagasaki has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Shimizu S-Pulse won against V-Varen Nagasaki?

Shimizu S-Pulse has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse were as follows:

07.09.2024 Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki 1:1

10.03.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse 4:1

01.07.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki 3:2

04.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:1

Latest results of V-Varen Nagasaki

21.03.2026 Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki 0:1 ✺

18.03.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

15.03.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka 1:0 ✺

08.03.2026 Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki 3:2 ✺

28.02.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Shimizu S-Pulse

01.04.2026 Vissel Kobe - Shimizu S-Pulse 2:0 ✺

22.03.2026 Shimizu S-Pulse - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3:1 ✺

18.03.2026 Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:2 ✺

14.03.2026 Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama 2:1 ✺

07.03.2026 Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2026

East

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	10	8	0	2	0	18:7	26
2	FC Tokyo	11	5	3	2	1	19:10	23
3	Machida	11	5	3	1	2	17:16	22
4	Verdy	10	3	3	0	4	16:15	15
5	Kawasaki Frontale	10	3	2	1	4	16:19	14
6	Urawa Reds	10	3	0	3	4	14:15	12
7	Mito	10	1	3	3	3	13:19	12
8	Kashiwa Reysol	10	3	1	0	6	15:14	11
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	10	3	0	0	7	13:18	9
10	Chiba	10	2	0	3	5	10:18	9

West

		Pl	W	W	L	L		Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	11	7	1	2	1	23:12	25
2	Kyoto	10	4	2	1	3	17:12	17
3	Gamba Osaka	10	3	3	2	2	16:14	17
4	Shimizu S-Pulse	11	3	2	4	2	15:14	17
5	Nagoya Grampus	10	4	1	2	3	17:15	16
6	Cerezo Osaka	10	3	2	1	4	10:11	14
7	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	10	3	2	0	5	15:14	13
8	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	4	0	0	6	10:15	12
9	Avispa Fukuoka	10	2	2	1	5	10:17	11
10	Okayama	10	2	1	3	4	11:20	11

      Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
      Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
      Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
      Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
      Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)