Result
2:2
08/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 25
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.92 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (307/374) | 84% (333/395) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (307/374) | 84% (333/395) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (26/63) | 54% (15/28) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (30/57) | 73% (108/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/5) | 20% (5/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.41 | 0.76 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (15/19) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.89 | 2.04 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | 0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 14', 0 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
- 45', Murilo de Souza 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Sola A. ↓, Doue G. ↑,
- 46', Luan Patrick ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 48', Moreira P. 🟨,
- 54', 1 - 1, Jovane ⚽, Moreira P. (A),
- 56', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
- 65', Stoica I. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
- 66', Caseres F. 🟨,
- 67', 2 - 1, Marcus A. ⚽,
- 69', 2 - 2, Garcia S. ⚽, Hernandez H. (A),
- 77', Marcus A. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
- 78', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
- 78', Hernandez H. ↓, Varela G. ↑,
- 79', Scholze M. ↓, Otavio ↑,
- 90+4', Garcia S. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
- 90+4', Murilo de Souza ↓, Rodrigues R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
22.7% | Draw
28.7% | Gil Vicente
48.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.17 ↑
(4.14) |
3.31 ↓
(3.51) |
1.95 ↓
(1.98) |
5.6%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 40% – 93.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Estrela (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 2 - 50%). Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 5).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Estrela: Antonetti L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Inactive)
Mutombo J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Encada J.
(Injury)
Langa B.
(Inactive)
van Hooijdonk S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Toure T.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Gil Vicente?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Estrela da Amadora?
Gil Vicente has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente were as follows:
04.10.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Estrela da Amadora
2:0
07.03.2025
Estrela da Amadora
-
Gil Vicente
1:1
05.10.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Estrela da Amadora
3:0
18.05.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Gil Vicente
1:0
14.01.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
