Result
1:1
04/05/2025 at 17:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 17
- Referee: Rojas A. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.39 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (204/258) | 81% (253/312) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.26 | 1.17 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (204/258) | 81% (253/312) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (22/46) | 56% (27/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (61/93) | 63% (35/56) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 39% (9/23) | 10% (1/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.42 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 78% (7/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 28', Viveros K. 🟨,
- 28', Aguerre W. 🟨,
- 38', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 1, Cardona E. (Pen),
- 45+1', Londono D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Cardona E. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
- 50', Uribe M. 🟨,
- 53', Chaverra F. 🟥,
- 55', Leon B. 🟨,
- 59', Uribe M. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
- 62', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
- 62', Mosquera J. ↓, Rodallega Y. ↑,
- 70', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
- 70', Serna A. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
- 74', Sarmiento A. ↓, Gil Mosquera F. A. ↑,
- 74', Viveros K. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
- 75', Berrio L. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 75', Fydriszewski F. ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,
- 83', Arce B. ↓, Guzman S. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 1, Marcus Vinicius ⚽,
- 90+5', Leon B. 🟥,
- 90+5', Campuzano J. 🟥,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/sjzxdn5b
Chances of winning
Independiente Medellín
28.3% | Draw
32.5% | Atlético Nacional
39.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Nacional's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+20.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-13.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.29 ↑
(1.95) |
2.9 ↓
(3.5) |
2.4 ↓
(3.45) |
6.5%
(8.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Ind Medellín (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Atlético Nacional?
Independiente Medellín has won 6 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Independiente Medellín?
Atlético Nacional has won 2 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
23.03.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
1:1
17.11.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Nacional
1:0
11.11.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
1:1
31.10.2024
Atlético Nacional
-
Independiente Medellín
2:0
21.04.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Atlético Nacional
2:2
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Junior | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Fortaleza | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Llaneros | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Chico | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pereira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Alianza | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Dep. Pasto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Aguilas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | America De Cali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | U. Magdalena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Envigado | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Ind. Medellin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | La Equidad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Dep. Cali | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Millonarios | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Once Caldas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )
