Independiente Medellín vs Atlético Nacional – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Colombian Primera A Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional
Result
1:1
04/05/2025 at 17:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Primera A - Apertura - Round 17
  • Referee: Rojas A. (Col)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
colombiaColombiaWin+ Futbol, Win play
south-americaSouth-americaRCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.301.39
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1612
Shots on target
76
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
74
Passes
79% (204/258)81% (253/312)
Yellow Cards
43
Red Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
1.301.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.261.17
Total shots
1612
Shots on target
76
Shots off target
82
Blocked Shots
14
Shots inside the Box
134
Shots outside the Box
38
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
74
Touches in opposition box
2015
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1811
Passes
79% (204/258)81% (253/312)
Long passes
48% (22/46)56% (27/48)
Passes in final third
66% (61/93)63% (35/56)
Crosses
39% (9/23)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.980.42
Throw-ins
1516
Fouls
1118
Tackles
80% (4/5)78% (7/9)
Duels won
3635
Clearances
1120
Interceptions
43
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
56
xGOT faced
1.171.26
Goals prevented
0.170.26

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 28', Viveros K. 🟨,
  • 28', Aguerre W. 🟨,
  • 38', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,
  • 40', 0 - 1, Cardona E. (Pen),
  • 45+1', Londono D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Cardona E. , Asprilla D. ,
  • 50', Uribe M. 🟨,
  • 53', Chaverra F. 🟥,
  • 55', Leon B. 🟨,
  • 59', Uribe M. , Rivero E. ,
  • 62', Martinez Yepez H. E. , Alvarado J. ,
  • 62', Mosquera J. , Rodallega Y. ,
  • 70', Sarmiento A. 🟨,
  • 70', Serna A. , Garcia M. ,
  • 74', Sarmiento A. , Gil Mosquera F. A. ,
  • 74', Viveros K. , Morelos A. ,
  • 75', Berrio L. , Moreno D. ,
  • 75', Fydriszewski F. , Marcus Vinicius ,
  • 83', Arce B. , Guzman S. ,
  • 89', 1 - 1, Marcus Vinicius ,
  • 90+5', Leon B. 🟥,
  • 90+5', Campuzano J. 🟥,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/sjzxdn5b

Official Live

Chances of winning


Independiente Medellín
28.3%
Draw
32.5%
Atlético Nacional
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.1% 26.3% 26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9% 25.3% 25.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.
  • Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Nacional's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+20.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-13.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.29
    (1.95)
    2.9
    (3.5)
    2.4
    (3.45)
    6.5%
    (8.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Ind Medellín (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 1.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:25. (average 1.3:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ind Medellín won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
    23.03.2025 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín 1:1
    17.11.2024 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional 1:0
    11.11.2024 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín 1:1
    31.10.2024 Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín 2:0
    21.04.2024 Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional 2:2
    Latest results of Atlético Nacional
    Colombian Primera A Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Atl. Nacional32017:436
    2Junior22005:236
    3Fortaleza22003:126
    4Santa Fe31203:215
    5Llaneros31202:115
    6Chico31114:314
    7Pereira31114:404
    8Alianza31112:204
    9Dep. Pasto11003:213
    10Deportes Tolima31023:4-13
    11Aguilas30212:3-12
    12Bucaramanga10101:101
    13America De Cali10100:001
    14U. Magdalena10100:001
    15Envigado20110:1-11
    16Ind. Medellin20111:3-21
    17La Equidad20111:3-21
    18Dep. Cali20110:2-21
    19Millonarios00000:000
    20Once Caldas20022:5-30

          Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )