Result
2:2
17/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League One - Round 27
- Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 0.98 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (308/402) | 69% (217/316) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 0.98 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.85 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (308/402) | 69% (217/316) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (18/62) | 39% (35/89) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 56% (72/128) | 52% (66/127) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (6/20) | 36% (8/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.82 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 69 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 54 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.15 | -0.75 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 11', 0 - 1, Draper F. ⚽, Moylan J. (A),
- 22', 0 - 2, Street R. ⚽, Hamer T. (A),
- 35', 1 - 2, Kodua G. ⚽, Walsh L. (A),
- 39', Street R. 🟨,
- 45+3', 2 - 2, Wells N. ⚽, Naismith K. (A),
- 45+6', Varfolomeev I. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Varfolomeev I. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
- 46', McGrandles C. 🟨,
- 49', Bramall C. 🟨,
- 60', Lawrence E. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
- 68', Moylan J. ↓, Ring E. ↑,
- 75', Jefferies D. 🟨,
- 77', Kodua G. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
- 86', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Towler R. ↑,
- 89', Wells N. ↓, Yates J. ↑,
- 90+5', Draper F. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Luton Town
38.4% | Draw
30.2% | Lincoln City
31.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luton Town's form might have worsened.Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lincoln City's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+8.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lincoln City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Luton Town - Lincoln City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.45 ↑
(2.06) |
3.11 ↓
(3.26) |
2.94 ↓
(3.58) |
7.1%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Lincoln City?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Lincoln (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Luton (3.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Luton Town will win
(12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Luton (votes: 4 - 80%). Lincoln (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2.
- Luton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lincoln is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Luton has had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Knee Injury)
Al Hamadi A.
(Inactive)
Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Jones I.
(Injury)
Richards J.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Lincoln: Collins J.
(Knee Injury)
Honohan J.
(Injury)
House B.
(Inactive)
Jackson A.
(Surgery)
Thorn O.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Luton: Naismith K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 3.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Lincoln City?
Luton Town has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lincoln City won against Luton Town?
Lincoln City has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Lincoln City were as follows:
20.09.2025
Lincoln City
-
Luton Town
3:1
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Lincoln City
English League One Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lincoln ✔ | 41 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 77:35 | 42 | 90 |
| 2 | Cardiff | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 74:42 | 32 | 78 |
| 3 | Bradford City | 41 | 21 | 8 | 12 | 52:45 | 7 | 71 |
| 4 | Bolton | 41 | 18 | 16 | 7 | 59:42 | 17 | 70 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 59:50 | 9 | 67 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 40 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 42:38 | 4 | 64 |
| 7 | Plymouth | 41 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 64:56 | 8 | 62 |
| 8 | Reading | 42 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 62:54 | 8 | 62 |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 41 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 62:53 | 9 | 61 |
| 10 | Luton | 41 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 57:50 | 7 | 61 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 12 | Mansfield | 39 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 49:41 | 8 | 53 |
| 13 | Peterborough | 40 | 15 | 6 | 19 | 59:55 | 4 | 51 |
| 14 | Barnsley | 39 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 60:64 | -4 | 51 |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 41 | 14 | 8 | 19 | 56:64 | -8 | 50 |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 41 | 14 | 8 | 19 | 49:62 | -13 | 50 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 41 | 14 | 8 | 19 | 42:64 | -22 | 50 |
| 18 | Wigan | 41 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 44:55 | -11 | 49 |
| 19 | Burton | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 45:56 | -11 | 48 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 42 | 13 | 9 | 20 | 48:64 | -16 | 48 |
| 21 | Exeter | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 45:53 | -8 | 46 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 40 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 35:59 | -24 | 37 |
| 23 | Northampton | 41 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 34:60 | -26 | 35 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 39 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 30:54 | -24 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Championship
Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ League Two
Clinched Spots for Teams
Lincoln is Qualified for Championship
