Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Result
4:2
14/06/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.100.28
Ball Possession
39%61%
Total shots
1411
Shots on target
76
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
56
Passes
69% (212/306)82% (393/482)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
2.100.28
xG on target (xGOT)
3.080.75
Total shots
1411
Shots on target
76
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
103
Shots outside the Box
47
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
56
Touches in opposition box
249
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
1312
Passes
69% (212/306)82% (393/482)
Long passes
37% (21/57)53% (40/75)
Passes in final third
54% (56/103)70% (79/113)
Crosses
50% (8/16)18% (3/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.320.30
Throw-ins
1523
Fouls
1213
Tackles
60% (9/15)50% (3/6)
Duels won
5539
Clearances
2035
Interceptions
105
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
43
xGOT faced
0.753.08
Goals prevented
-0.26-0.92

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 15', 0 - 1, Damus R. ⚽, Laszo E. (A),
  • 19', Centeno E. 🟨,
  • 29', 1 - 1, Dia A. ⚽, Serrano R. (A),
  • 30', 2 - 1, Goodrum P. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
  • 44', 3 - 1, Goodrum P. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 52', Preston T. 🟨,
  • 58', 4 - 1, Goodrum P. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
  • 60', Preston T. ↓, Trejo D. ↑,
  • 65', Dia A. ↓, McFadden A. ↑,
  • 66', Goodrum P. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
  • 66', Perez E. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
  • 67', Centeno E. ↓, Tregarthen S. ↑,
  • 67', Suarez S. ↓, Paterson AJ ↑,
  • 68', Gleadle S. 🟨,
  • 76', Wilson J. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
  • 78', Turnbull S. ↓, Hamouda R. ↑,
  • 78', Laszo E. ↓, McIllhatton S. ↑,
  • 82', Davila T. ↓, Moguel C. ↑,
  • 90', 4 - 2, Moguel C. (Own goal),

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Louisville City
65.4%		Draw
20.3%		Birmingham Legion
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
56.6% 24.7% 18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9% 23.7% 18%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.
  • Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Louisville City that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
    •

    Louisville City - Birmingham Legion Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.42 ↓
    (1.57)    		 4.56 ↑
    (3.6)    		 6.49 ↑
    (4.75)    		 7.9%
    (12.5%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Louisville City - Birmingham Legion?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Louisville City will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Louisville City will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 10).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 2.
    • Louisville City is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • In recent matches, Birmingham has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Birmingham may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Louisville City is the obvious favorite.
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.6:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Louisville City - Birmingham Legion were as follows:
    29.06.2024 Birmingham Legion - Louisville City 1:4
    30.03.2024 Louisville City - Birmingham Legion 5:0
    19.08.2023 Birmingham Legion - Louisville City 2:0
    22.07.2023 Louisville City - Birmingham Legion 1:2
    Latest results of Louisville City
    11.06.2025 Louisville City - Rhode Island 2:1 ✺
    07.06.2025 Louisville City - Tampa Bay Rowdies 2:1
    31.05.2025 Loudoun United - Louisville City 2:1
    24.05.2025 Monterey Bay - Louisville City 0:2
    17.05.2025 Hartford Athletic - Louisville City 1:1
    Latest results of Birmingham Legion
    04.06.2025 Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven 0:1 ✺
    31.05.2025 Tulsa - Birmingham Legion 1:2
    24.05.2025 Miami - Birmingham Legion 1:2
    18.05.2025 Birmingham Legion - Detroit City 1:1
    14.05.2025 Birmingham Legion - Rhode Island 0:1 ✺
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Tampa Bay752012:4817
    2Louisville City851216:11516
    3Detroit74129:5413
    4Charleston841312:12013
    5Miami FC833210:12-212
    6Pittsburgh831410:13-310
    7Hartford Athletic72417:7010
    8Indy Eleven723210:919
    9Birmingham723210:919
    10Rhode Island722312:1118
    11Brooklyn82158:13-57
    12Loudoun705210:13-35
    13Sporting Jax80175:18-131


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Antonio944111:8316
    2Orange County SC94329:6315
    3El Paso741217:12513
    4Sacramento Republic834111:7413
    5Oakland Roots834114:11313
    6Phoenix Rising833212:8412
    7FC Tulsa833211:9212
    8Colorado Springs723215:1329
    9Las Vegas Lights822413:16-38
    10New Mexico52035:8-36
    11Lexington81347:10-36
    12Monterey Bay80264:15-112

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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