Result
0:4
14/03/2026 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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 Spain | Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 26', 🟨,
- 27', Perea C. 🟨,
- 29', 0 - 1, Ortega J. ⚽,
- 31', 0 - 2, Ciria A. ⚽,
- 35', Presa K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Celorio N. ↓, Unzueta I. ↑,
- 53', Presa K. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
- 53', Sanchez B. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
- 57', 🟨,
- 60', 0 - 3, Fortuny P. ⚽,
- 65', Gallar A. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
- 65', Haro P. ↓, Perera A. ↑,
- 68', Balboa A. 🟨,
- 72', 0 - 4, Ortega J. ⚽,
- 82', Jimenez D. 🟨,
- 86', Reniero N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Lugo
31.4% | Draw
33.2% | Real Madrid Castilla
35.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo's form might have worsened.Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid Castilla's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+14.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-10.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.17 ↑
(2.02) |
4.45 ↑
(3.09) |
3.68 ↑
(3.61) |
-31%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Lugo (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 2.
- Lugo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Real Madrid Castilla has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Real Madrid Castilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Lugo will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.3:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lugo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lugo won against Real Madrid Castilla?
Lugo has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid Castilla won against Lugo?
Real Madrid Castilla has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla were as follows:
29.08.2025
Real Madrid Castilla
-
Lugo
2:1
02.08.2023
Lugo
-
Real Madrid Castilla
1:0
Latest results of Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tenerife | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 51:18 | 33 | 65 |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 47:42 | 5 | 54 |
| 3 | Ponferradina | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 35:25 | 10 | 47 |
| 4 | Barakaldo | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 40:32 | 8 | 47 |
| 5 | Real Madrid B | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 46:41 | 5 | 46 |
| 6 | Zamora | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 42:37 | 5 | 46 |
| 7 | Pontevedra | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 35:23 | 12 | 46 |
| 8 | Lugo | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 30:30 | 0 | 45 |
| 9 | Unionistas | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 44:42 | 2 | 44 |
| 10 | Ath Bilbao B | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 33:35 | -2 | 44 |
| 11 | AD Merida | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 41:44 | -3 | 44 |
| 12 | Arenas Getxo | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 38:42 | -4 | 44 |
| 13 | Racing Club Ferrol | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 35:36 | -1 | 42 |
| 14 | Real Aviles | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 45:53 | -8 | 37 |
| 15 | CF Talavera | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 32:40 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Guadalajara | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 35 |
| 17 | Ourense CF | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 18 | Cacereno | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 29:41 | -12 | 31 |
| 19 | Osasuna B | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 23:37 | -14 | 30 |
| 20 | Arenteiro | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28:42 | -14 | 26 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga2
Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1
Relegation
